harikumar1964's blog

I am not a political enthusiast or an expert commentator on politics to write a blog on elections. Yet I am trying my hand at something in which I am not even a novice. This is just penning or typing my impressions on what we call the biggest democratic process in the world- and truly India is the largest democracy ( if we call what ever is happening as democracy and not demo –crazy ).

As a young boy, politics meant strike- with  lots of red flags and inquilab zindabad. The first time I saw a big political leader  was in 1971 when Indira Gandhi visited my hometown Trichur as a part of her election campaign. I still remember waiting under the hot sun in the grounds with my mother . And the brief speech she made was incomprehensible to me- as both politics and the English language was incomprehensible to me. During those days like many Indians, I knew and only knew Indira Gandhi. This was one of the two times I have seen her- the other being in the Parliament when I got a chance to visit Rajya Sabha (the upper house) during my 1974 Delhi visit with my parents.  I have also seen V.V Giri – then president of India when he visited an institution very near to my house – and as his motorcade rolled right in front of my house,  we stood at our doorsteps  watching him, with no interference from police or commandos. As such during the 70s I have seen Vajpayee, Morarji Desai etc.. from very close range and it was unimaginable then  to have high security zones (where even chappals are not allowed) around a leader and dress rehersals with three helicopters and three landing strips.   This reminds me of an article I read in paper sometime back – that in 1967 in the Regal Cinema at Connaught Place here in Delhi, during one of the night shows of “The Sound of Music” a Lady was watching the movie from the balcony, almost unnoticed by others in the audience- and at the end of the show, she just moved out, and drove her Ambassador car back home- and that was none other than the then Indian PM Mrs Indira Gandhi. And this was the India of my childhood.

Coming back to the just concluded elections, at last the people have given a somewhat meaningful mandate- giving more than 200 seats to the congress. Even amidst the sympathy wave following Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination, congress could not get past 200 mark in 1991. And we can expect a stable govt for the next five years.  Even though Cong will need the support of such eccentric and unpredictable allies like Mamata Banerjee, still they will not be powerful enough  to take congress for a ride . With DMK, emerging as a formidable force this time as well, Cong could have been forced to intervene in the Srilankan conflict. But thankfully, it seems, the Srilankan conflict is almost over- with Prabhakaran  dead or in Army custody. So in all probability, DMK would be happy to have some meaty portfolios. The dozen or so members needed for the magic figure can be picked up- borrowing Vir Singhvi’s words – off the shelf of the supermarket of politics- with independents and players like Ajit singh readily available.

The defeat  of Lalu and Paswan is the true music to a vast majority of Indians. They had grown to a status  larger than their legends. But if the political commentators are to be believed, Sonia has a softcorner for Lalu and may still be offered a birth in the cabinet.

The loss of the left in Kerala and west Bengal was the real watershed in this election. Results of kerala was a foregone conclusion, but the extend of defeat in Bengal really surprised most.  It was hard to believe that Singur and Nandigram would have such a great impact. To my knowledge, (as I have a considerable Bengali friends’ circle) these were not the reason- already the people were disillusioned with the way CPM ruled the state. Nandigram and singur just acted as a trigger. With infighting in Kerala’s CPM leadership that would make the 80s & 90s groupism in congress appear like child’s play, and arrogance and utter disregard to its allies  that had alienated its associates of many decades, the kerala result has not surprised even the Kerala chief Minister.  But what was more striking was the response of the AKG Bhawan- who still don’t want to admit that their mass base or appeal has waned. They still pretend to put it this way- that people just thought it wise to vote for Cong to keep BJP away. Otherwise their support is as strong as ever. But then why not third front? Atleast the educated India still believes the nuclear deal is for the country’s good and the rural poor is unconcerned.

The fate of BJP was the most pathetic. This was the last chance for Advani. But BJP is time and again failing to understand the insignificance for  the vast majority of Indians of a Ram Temple . There are thousands  of other pressing issues which are far more important to the masses than a Ram Temple. I would rather admit that , the six year Vajpayee rule was one of the best for the country. The national highway programme  started by them , has only slowed down during congress regime. The improvements in railways for which Lalu always claimed credit, was actually started by Nitish Kumar during BJP period.  They chose one of the best Presidents- the most lovable one- for India.  But the presence of  hardcore hindutwa elements in the party , has alienated BJP to certain extend, with no regional players wanting to formalize pre-poll alliance with BJP which would have aided them in a coalition that worked well during 1998-04.

Politics is a roller coaster ride, and there is always a second chance. So those who are down and out today  may bounce back tomorrow to be a formidable force. That is what makes the politicians get going- they are eternal optimists, something we ought to learn and put in to practice in our daily  life. That could be reason for the longevity of many of our political leaders.

The media and the so called psephologists again failed miserably in the  extrapolation of their survey. No exit polls   gave cong and UPA more than 215 seats. They always projected it as a neck and neck race between Cong and BJP. But this has become now a very regular stuff. 2004 was no different.  Exit polls are becoming increasingly way  off target.  But no channel is candid enough to admit that they were way off the target.  Psephology, probably  started in India by Pronoy Roy,  was reasonably accurate during the late 80s and early 90s when parliament elections were fought on certain issues or under the cloud of some waves,  not anymore. It is fought on local issues, with local parties. So extrapolation is bound to be inaccurate. And this time, the youth which constitute a large chunk of electorate has opted for Rahul’s Charm than Advani’s Ram.

Coming back to India today, we are bound to witness economic roller coaster rides, educational upswings, social changes which has positive and negative aspects to it. These are the things on which successive govts and oppostition claim credit and start blame game. But my only question to the political leadership is that can you redeem the India of my childhood back to me? A safe India. Where  leaders and followers and commoners could rub shoulders, where political assassination was rarity , where suicide bombing and serial blasts were unheard of, where the only ism known was capitalism and communism-not terrorism. Will there be another day, when we will be watching a movie in a multiplex , here in Delhi, among the audience seated the Prime Minister of India? Jai Ho.

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