Thanks for all the feedback I got for the first part. I will address one common comment that came my way .specific individual seat related queries/comments have been answered separately.
I got quite some comments saying my first part of analysis seemed lenient or favouring BJP! A major factor in my analysis was based on how parties had performed in the assembly elections held in May 2008 and how the parties having been doing since in Karnataka politics. The first part had constituencies from the North and Coastal areas which are traditional BJP strongholds. In fact they had swept all seats in districts like Gadag & Bagalkot and done extremely well in Dharwad, Haveri, Bellary, Davangere & Shimoga. They are again expected to do well here. There has been no perceptible change in these areas that indicate otherwise.
We also need to note that BJP has dominated the scene in the last year and opposition has been a divided lot. A lot of leaders including sitting MLAs have moved over to them. This has to affect Cong and JDS and would this time.
Now continuing on the seat analysis with Davangere!
The cotton belt of Karnataka! This is Shamanur Shivshankarappa's (owner of Bapuji educational institutions) stronghold. He virtually runs Davangere city (I personally know that hostels were emptied and students were forced to campaign or do proxy voting). He has retired from politics and his son SS Mallikarjun is the Cong nominee against sitting MP GM Siddeshwar of BJP.
It was a surprise that BJP managed to win last time and they used that opportunity to consolidate further in the assembly elections last year. The neighboring districts of Bellary and Shimoga are BJP bastions, so there might be some affect of that. There is quite some dissidence in Cong. This was witnessed in the fracas during the assembly elections when the fight led to no Congress candidate in the fray (nomination papers of both congressmen were rejected as both claimed they were "official" candidates)!! You never rule out Shamanur in Davangere and this time they would be going all out but it still looks like BJP will retain this seat and GM Siddeshwar will just make it. It can really go either way.
BJP -13, Cong-3, JDS-0
Another reserved constituency and another where delimitation has changed the local politics. This is now the largest constituency by area in Karnataka. This is an unpredictable seat in the sense that in its earlier form it even elected JDU's actor Shashi Kumar to the LS!! No party or leaders have really solved the issues in the area and that is a jarring note.
BJP is not that strong in the area. They have taken a punt and fielded US returned Software engineer Janardhan Swamy against Cong's Thitteswamy. JDS used to be strong in the area but defections have hit it hard and they would be relegated to third. Thitteswamy should win this one!
BJP -13, Cong-4, JDS-0
Former CM Verappa Moily of Cong takes on C.Aswathnarayana of BJP and Kannada film director Manohar in a three way fight.
Local strongman and sitting Cong MP RL Jalappa (another JD man who moved to Cong during split) is miffed and refused to contest this time. He has been miffed for some time due to him being not given importance. Apparently a lot of Jalappa's supporters have joined BJP in the recent past and there were rumours during the trust vote on N-Deal that Jalappa might also switch over! This is a big setback for Moily, who is an outsider to this constituency.
Traditionally BJP has not been strong in this area but given the infighting in Cong camp they did well in the assembly elections and should do well now also. Aswathnarayana might just win this and Moily will have to go back empty handed.
BJP -14, Cong-4, JDS-0
Hassan
Three things are famous from this Vokkaliga heartland ' ISRO, Gomateshwara and Deve Gowda.
Need I say more! Former PM and sitting MP HD Deve Gowda takes on veteran BJP leader KH Hanume Gowda and B Shivaram of Cong.
Apparently both Cong and BJP are trying hard to make sure Deve Gowda does not make it through. There have been movements across party lines here but that has actually dented Cong as leaders have moved to both JDS and BJP. Shivaram is a veteran rival of Gowda in local politics and Hanume Gowda also has been around for a long time but I just don't think Vokkaligas in the area will let down their "mannina maga" (Son of the soil) and HD Deve Gowda should win easily.
BJP -14, Cong-4, JDS-1
Sitting BJP MP CH Vijayashankar takes on JDS' BV Jeevijaya and Cong's H Vishwanath in a three way fight.
It is a bit puzzling in the sense that I just do not understand why H Vishwanath was given ticket by the Cong. He was the education minister in SM Krishna's Govt and is afflicted of a disease called "foot-in-mouth"J. Also he has lost assembly elections twice from Mysore and is down and out. If the ticket was given to lash out at Siddramaiah then it was bad! This is the area of Siddramaiah's influence and a handpicked candidate could have wrested the seat for Cong. Bad choice in my view.
Former MP, Jeevijaya moved from Cong to JDS recently to contest from here. He is a veteran of the area. He had once defeated Gundu Rao from this seat in the 80's. JDS has lost a lot of clout here with Siddramaiah moving to Cong and GT Devegowda moving to BJP! He will give a good fight but should still loose here.
Vijayashankar once defeated Srikantadatta Wodeyar for Mysore LS seat and that is an achievement in this area. Given the good support for BJP among Lingayats and this area has a sizeable and influential Lingayat population. But the biggest plus for BJP is addition of Madikeri to Mysore LS seat after delimitation. Madikeri is a BJP bastion. Given this I feel Vijayashankar will retain his seat here.
BJP -15, Cong-4, JDS-1
Chamarajnagar
This is a straight fight between Cong and JDS. BJP is almost non-existent here. Cong holds all 8 assembly segments under this seat. Cong denied ticket to sitting MP as all their MLAs in the region as also their top leaders Siddramaiah and Sreenivas Prasad (both moved from JDS to Cong in recent years) were against him. This means the only dissidence is from the MP, which should not amount to much. Cong's Dhruvnarayan should win this hands down.
BJP -15, Cong-5, JDS-1
Another one of straight fights between Cong and JDS! This is the heartland of Cauvery belt. 'Rebel Star' Ambareesh played a game with the Cong leadership and had his way. His has been non-performance of highest order. In fact he even outdid Dharmendra and Govinda in attending parliament!! That's not an easy task! But having a look at the rally he took to file nomination, it seems Mandya will again vote along caste lines and for their Ambianna. Former minister JDS' Cheluvarayaswamy will give a tough fight but his appeal is limited. Shivarama Gowda of BJP, a recently Vokkaliga import from Cong has little chances of winning barring a miracle. My pick is Ambareesh should win comfortably!
BJP -15, Cong-6, JDS-1
Another straight fight between Cong and JDS in what has always been a Cong bastion. BJP is a minor player here. It also does not help that a BJP MLA is being investigated for corruption and has also been suspended from the party!
Sitting MP and union minister KH Muniyappa is trying to retain the seat and his opponents are JDS' Chandranna and BJP's DS Veeraiah.
There are a huge number of Tamilian votes in this constituency, to the extent that on AIADMK's Rajendran has won the KGF assembly seat thrice! If they whole-heartedly support JDS since both are part of third front, it could be interesting. But I think KH Muniyappa will retain this seat.
BJP -15, Cong-7, JDS-1
Veteran Cong leader and former Union Railway minister CK Jaffer Sharief takes on another veteran politician who recently joined BJP, DB Chandre Gowda.
Chandre Gowda is another of Ramakrishna Hegde man who moved out of JD to Cong and now to BJP. He is very articulate and was one of the intellectual faces of JD till the 90s. His moving to BJP recently is seen as a shot in the arm for the ruling party.
Sharief has been losing elections recently and this was not his preferred seat. Sharief's tantrums during ticket allocation for 2008 assembly elections would have not endeared him to a lot of Congressmen. There is quite some opposition to him. This area now has quite some Vokkaliga dominated rural segments which is what BJP is trying to break into by fielding Chandre Gowda.
It should succeed and Chandre Gowda to win this.
BJP -16, Cong-7, JDS-1
This most high profile of contests in Karnataka! BJP national Gen Secrectary and 4-time MP Ananth Kumar takes on Youth Cong leader Krishna ByreGowda, Prof Radhakrishna of JDS and independent candidate Capt G R Gopinath, the founder of Air Deccan. This is tough to predict!
JDS is a minor player when it comes to urban seats and it won't change much here. Capt Gopinath has made some impression, with his symbol "a kite" but as usual an independent can only do so much. He could win but that would be a minor miracle and a real pleasant surprise for me!
Krishna is the son of former JD leader and speaker of assembly late C Byregowda but is contesting LS elections for the first time. Cong is leaving no stone unturned here and he apparently is attracting the young voters but it needs to be seen how many would vote for him. We have seen in numerous cases that good crowd turnout or people talking well of you during your campaigns are no guarantee of votes.
Ananth Kumar on the other hand is a veteran. Also he would have the full BJP machinery fighting for him. Some people think that given their internal rivalry BSY can scuttle Kumar's plans but I believe otherwise. If Kumar loses then he would concentrate on state politics which would be the one thing BSY would want to avoid. It works for both if Kumar wins! I think Ananth Kumar should just scrape through this time!
Kannada Chaluvali Vatal Paksha's Vatal Nagaraj has also entered the fray here. This should ensure good entertainment to the voters of the area due to his antics. But he won't be of more than nuisance value to the major candidates.
BJP -17, Cong-7, JDS-1
Bengaluru - Central
Former super-cop HT Sangliana of Cong (he was one of the BJP rebels during the trust vote over nuclear deal) takes on PC Mohan of BJP. JDS should be a comfortable third in this seat.
Jaffer Sharief wanted this seat but Sangliana was rewarded for helping the Govt during the confidence vote. He had defeated Sharief in the last elections. Cong is pretty strong in the area Apparently he has not done much on the ground but PC Mohan recently lost assembly elections and I think he will lose this as well. A lot of minority dominant areas under this constituency should also help Cong (a main reason why Sharief wanted to contest here).
Sangliana to win this seat!
BJP -17, Cong-8, JDS-1
Another prestigious and high profile contest! This is the toughest to predict! Erstwhile Kanakapura has been rechristened ass Bangalore ' Rural. Also the nature of the seat has undergone a lot of changes with certain urban areas coming under it. Vokkaliga votes dominate the seat and all three parties are vying for it.
It is a three way fight with JDS state president and former CM HD Kumaraswamy taking on sitting MP, former journalist and host of Mukha-Mukhi Tejasvini Sriramesh of Cong and latest entrant into BJP, former actor and Channapatna MLA CP Yogeshwar!!
It was the surprise of 2004 elections that Tejasvini won. She was pitted against veteran BJP leader Ramachandre Gowda and JDS' HD Deve Gowda, yet she won! Deve Gowda was pushed to third here and all 3 candidates had secured 3+ lakh votes!! All three parties have strong base but Kumaraswamy has looked after Ramanagaram very well. He made it a district and that area should vote overwhelming for him. Yogeshwar is the dark horse and Tejasvini still has a lot to offer but Kumaraswamy should have the last laugh
BJP -17, Cong-8, JDS-2
Tumkur
Cong's P Kodandaramaiah takes on JDS' Muddahanume Gowda and BJP's GS Basavaraj in a three way fight. Tumkur is unique in the sense that it has almost equal number of voters from Vokkaligas, Lingayats and BCs. Each party is trying to win over one caste!
Kodandaramaiah is a former police commissioner of Bangalore and a first rate political traveler He was JD MP from Chitradurga in 1996, moved with RK Hegde to Lok Sakthi, then to Cong, then to JDS and back to Cong!!!!. He is known to be close to Siddaramaiah and has been given a ticket to win over the backward classes since they form a substantial number here. But Kodandaramaiah is going to be on a very sticky turf since he is an outsider and with numerous stories of how anti-Siddaramaiah camp in Cong is sabotaging his chances. I won't be surprised if he is third in this contest.
Both JDS' Muddahanume Gowda and BJP's GS Basavaraj were both veteran Congressmen with pretty good influence in the area. JDS controls 4 of the 8 assembly segments here and recently won a by poll (Turuvekere seat vacated by film actor Jaggesh when he moved from Cong to BJP).
Basavaraj was given a ticket over veteran BJP leader and sitting MP S Mallikarjuniah (who was also deputy speaker of LS during 91-96) apparently at the insistence of Siddganga Swamiji. He is a former MP having defeated Mallikarjuniah previously. This has obviously not gone down well with a lot of BJP folks.
It is too close to call but given the infighting in Cong and BJP and the concentration of Vokkaligas, I stick my head out and think Muddahanume Gowda might sail through but only just.
Overall I think BJP will retain its dominance of Karnataka politics for now with divided house Cong not doing as per potential. JDS will be marginal player and retain influence in the Vokkaliga dominated belts.
Final tally makes it almost status quo from 2004 with BJP losing one seat to Cong! Given that I am no astrologer and just have put down what I feel, based on certain factors, it would be fair to say there could be a couple of seats going either way to change the overall numbers. I also don't think BJP would get more than 20 seats (forget 24 that BSY and his ministers have been tom-toming!)
In my view the seats which are toss up and really can go anyway are Tumkur, Raichur, Koppal, Bangalore 'Rural, Mangaluru and Bijapur Other seats if they dont go as per my analysis, then it could range from mild surprise to shockerJ
How people vote on April 23rd and 30th would be known only on May 16th. Irrespective of what you think of politics and whom you support but Please vote!
A lot of feedback where people wanted my views on how the Lok Sabha would eventually look like I don't think we will have a clear winner but you never know. Third part will be coming soon!