The air build around the first phase of elections in Kashmir on November 17 refuses to die down with remaining constituencies seem to fall in line to the new mantra- boycott separatist call. The enthusiastic voters, many among them the first-timers, waited in long queues to cast their ballots in Ganderbal and Kangan constituencies of Kashmir.
Despite repeated calls from separatist leaders and the proactive coordination committee - an amalgam of trade unions, separatists, businessmen, lawyers, etc - that came into existence during the Amarnath land row, an impressive turnover around 65 per cent was recorded in the second phase of elections on November 23 across Jammu and Kashmir.
The participation of the people in the ongoing elections immediately after the Amarnath land row and its subsequent conversion into aazadi movement has taken everyone by surprise. Assertions and analysis of potential boycott got nullified. A debate over potential winners has already begun and poll pundits are busy in the arithmetic of seats.
So, was the aazadi movement an aberration or people's memory is short-lived is a million dollar question.
The discourse among the intellectual circles over the issue is circumspect. "Just like land row and aazadi movement surprised New Delhi, heavy turn recorded in two phases was surprise for us," said a Kashmir watcher. However, the opinion comes with a rider. "People should not read too much into it," he says.
At a polling station in Ganderbal, a young women voter struggling in the queue eager to vote barked- "vote hamara haq hai, aazadi hamara nara hai (vote is our right, freedom our slogan)"to the television cameras filming them entering the polling booth guarded by vigilant paramilitary, regulating their entry inside.
People participating in the elections by and large see no similarity between the aazadi movement and casting vote in elections. They cite so many reasons justifying their participation in both the exercises. Little matters if it sounds close to unusual.
"Look I’m exercising my right and we need to have our own government that will address our day to day issues. We are trying to disqualify those who got elected in past elections by general boycott. They have perpetrated their reign of terror on us and are victimizing us. We have decided to oppose them come what may.
"As far as aazadi movement is concerned we are with it and have been part of it during the agitation days. I would be the first person to reach Lal Chowk, if and when government allows it," said 21-year-old Ashiq Hussain Bhat of Lar waiting for his turn in the long queue. Bhat is the first-time voter.
There are so many factors that one find responsible for change in mind among the people. There is a concern for helping the relative, family friend or a neighbor get elected from a particular constituency owing to the increasing number of candidates in the fray. Then there is a fear of neglect or reprisal from the opposite camp in case he gets elected.
"There are so many problems that we had to face. We need elected representatives for the development in our constituencies for getting job packages, for acting as conduits at the time when police or paramilitary forces arrest our youth. Hurriyat people can not lend their help in such matters. They have a different agenda," said a Ghulam Mohammed waiting at Watlar polling station. Mir is a government employee and pleaded that his surname should be kept confidential.
Contrary to it separatists see elections as an entrenchment of New Delhi’s hold on Jammu and Kashmir.
“India is holding these elections under occupation, curfews, detentions and crackdowns. Whatever the poll percentage, no election under these conditions can be a legitimate exercise,” Mirwaiz maintained
He has been kept under house arrest for last 10 days. More than two dozen separatist leaders including Yasin Malik, Shabeer Shah and others who called for an election boycott have been detained in recent days under public safety act (PSA). The law allows police to detain people up to two years without trial. Calls for separatist marches or protests are met by undeclared curfews in the Srinagar city and major town.
There is anger among second rung leadership and lower cadres of separatist over the poll turnover. They blame the inability of Hurriyat to tame the crowd. They have realized that the public wave was like a wild tiger, who they miserably failed to bridle. They had used to receive telephone calls from people over their decisions, if it sounded weak. "We were not able to reach out to the people in distant villages to keep the spark inside them alive. So naturally their attention got shifted towards his other needs though for a temporary period," said a separatist leader wishing anonymity.
Analysts in the region see the participation of people as a verdict aimed at accelerating the ongoing peace process and good governance.
"If we go beyond the months of agitation, election preparations were at its peak. Political parties had been able to conduct rallies and the participation of people was recorded was considerable.. Then there was an agitation and the mood was put on hold. We witnessed similar protests in Jammu as well. But as soon as the issue was resolved Jammu rushed back to normal compared to Kashmir that took time to settle down. With the ground already prepared for elections, people queued to nominate their representatives," said Rekha Chowdhary, a political analyst and an election expert.
Chowdhary is critical of drawing comparisons between the situation in 1990s and recent agitation and disagrees with the opposition to clampdown separatists and declaring curfew in the places other than polling constituencies.
"This is vote for good governance and people should not see the two different situations in continuity with each other. I see clampdown more as a strategy with the government because, otherwise there is a pressure of Hurriyat on people. Is there any strategy to minimize that? We have seen people willfully using their ballot," she adds.
But between the lines, the question over Hurriyat's relevance in Kashmir issues needs to be pondered upon.
The elections for the state legislature started November 17 and are to be held in seven phases through December 24. On 28, the counting of votes is scheduled and results are expected.
Across the brisk polling, voices of dissent and boycott were also witnessed in Ganderbal though negligible. In Kurhama and Beehama villages a groups of angry protesters threw rocks at a polling station and clashed with police and paramilitary forces deployed in the area. The protesters chanted slogans of boycott.
Behavioural scientists too however do not see the change in perception among the Kashmiri people as something different. They don't see the transition in the people's mood as something unusal.
"Media nowadays has got the bad habit of connecting one issue with the other and then to something totally irrelevant, besides trying to draw conclusions. This is a human psyche and Kashmiris are not specials. The Anti-India sentiment runs deep in Kashmir and if you try to see that today's polling negates that, then I fear you have got it wrong. Don't see it in that contest. People have the aspirations in addition to that as well,” said Tariq Ahmad Rather, a sociologist.
At Ganderbal National Conference president Omar Abdullah is in the fray along with Qazi Afzal of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Sheikh Ishfaq of Congress party. Twelve candidates are contesting from the constituency but the competition is among these three candidates. Earlier Ganderbal constituency was considered family bastion for the Abdullahs but 2002 Assembly elections proved otherwise as Omar lost to Qazi Afzal.
Nearly 69 per cent turnout was registered in the first phase of polling across 10 constituencies including Bandipore on November 17. The third phase of polling is on Nov 30. And the trend has picked up.
Now analysing the public mood in Kashmir is as complex as the Kashmir situation itself. There is nothing that explains much about the aazadi marches and the agitation over Amarnath land deal. Drawing conclusions from a particular wave and reading much into often leads to distortions. So everything has to be read in a different context. Be it people coming out in large numbers demanding cessation from the Union of India or people casting votes to choose elected representatives who swear by the constitution of India.
So many questions and no answers, it's how Kashmir had emerged over the years.
