The Israeli embassy in Cairo has shut down today morning and its diplomats evacuated to Tel Aviv. How were they evacuated? In helicopters from the chancery compound in the Egyptian capital. The roads have become unsafe. Hm, rats deserting the sinking ship…
Israelis have every reason to play it safe. The proscribed Muslim Brotherhood says Alexandria is already under its control - and Hamas is an offshoot of MB. The Egyptian role is crucial to Israel’s security, especially in sealing off Gaza and preventing the Palestinian guerillas from sourcing supplies. Most important, Egypt’s ‘defection’ from the pro-West Arab camp will send reverberations all over the Middle East. Israel’s regional isolation will become total.
What happens in Egypt will determine the course of Middle Eastern history.
Which is why Tehran has gone on the offensive. The Iranian foreign ministry has demanded that Mubarak should heed the ‘rightful demands’ of the people. What an irony! Iran is the only voice in the entire Middle East today championing the cause of democracy and Barack Obama is lost for words! ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu has instructed the Israeli ministers not to utter a word. The birds are coming to roost.
Which is why Tehran has gone on the offensive. The Iranian foreign ministry has demanded that Mubarak should heed the ‘rightful demands’ of the people. What an irony! Iran is the only voice in the entire Middle East today championing the cause of democracy and Barack Obama is lost for words! ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu has instructed the Israeli ministers not to utter a word. The birds are coming to roost.
The hard reality has been that Iran has a representative form of government, a political economy that allows tremendous social mobility and a state that heavily subsidises the weaker sections of society. That is why the social base of the 1979 revolution still remains very substantial. In the regional turbulence, therefore, Iran stands out as an oasis of stability. Yet, this is the country which has been in the crosshairs of the US for ‘regime change’ for alleged lack of democracy.
Mahmoud Ahmedinejad’s historic legacy will be that he bridged the Shi’ite-Sunni divide and became the archetypal symbol on the Arab street as the voice of justice. Thus, Iran stands to gain most from an Islamic revolution in the Middle East. The Iranian religious establishment is greatly elated. The Friday Prayer meeting in Tehran heralded the advent of an “Islamic Middle East”. Oh, boy, what a time in history!
Not just Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood is the parent organization for a majority of ‘Islamic Fundamentalist’ groups, including Al-qaeda, of the world. If they come to power in Egypt, they could re-open the border with Gaza, negating the effects of the years-long blockade, enforced by Israel on the Gaza strip. Hamas could also re-arm itself like Hezbollah, if the borders are opened and pose a greater threat to Israel. Countries like Jordan, Yemen and Iran could draw Israel into conflict, to divert the attention of their people, if this revolution spreads to their countries, which seems likely now and Israel having failed to act against its aggressors (unlike in the past) could face a dire situation. After the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in 2006, in which Israel lost (since they failed to achieve their objectives and retreated), Israel has been reluctant to act against Hezbollah, which has re-armed itself with tens of thousands of missile since then and this could lead to the downfall of Israel. Israel’s problems are certainly bound to grow, because of this revolution.
Siva