Pity that a fantastic travel book that came out recently didn’t receive attention in Delhi - The Horse That Leaps Through Clouds: A tale of espionage, the Silk Road and the Rise of Modern China by Eric Enno Tamm. It is, of course, vintage Great Game [to which, by God, I'm addicted for lifetime] - recount by an adventurous Finnish traveller who retraced that legendary once-in-a-millennium journey across the vast Central Asian steppes and killer deserts by Baron Gustaf Mannerheim, Finnish-Russian aristocrat who, as a Russian spy travelled 17000 km overland to Beijing a hundred years ago and reported back to Tsar Nicholas II in St Petersburg his ‘findings’ about China.
Oh, how I miss life and times in the Central Asian oasis town of Tashkent. Still remember sitting in a vineyard near Andijan [from where Babar set out to conquer Hindustan] drinking vodka and munching kebabs and shashliks on a sunny, windy hopelessly cold winter noon with the curator of the local museum peering at the hazy outlines of the impossibly rugged mountains of Pyeongchange Range, beyond which, he claimed, lies China….
Anyway, why is it India has lost the desire or curiosity about Central Asia? And China’s shadows are lengthening over Central Asia. At one point Tamm says while travelling through Kyrgyzstan, what struck him is that the local bazaars are so similar to Walmart - they are so full of Chinese goods.
No one here noticed that Emomali Rahmon had just had a wonderful time in Pakistan. From Islamabad, he travelled to Karachi to learn first hand how the Silk Road terminal is going to look like when the US project is complete. By the way, US has begun next round of diplomacy to link up Pakistan irrevocably with CA. Negotiations have begun to extend the scope of last year’s Pak-Afghan Trade & Transit Agreement to include CA states. Things should pick up now that Raymond Davis file is closed.
After the setback over Ani airbase, we seem to have withdrawn into a shell. Ani was not a realistic proposition any way - unless we have the underpinning of a strategic understanding with Iran. Am saying all these meandering thoughts not as criticism but to drive home something needs to be done urgently. Thought had been brewing in my mind for a while to suggest it is time to put bygones behind and look ahead, We seem to lack constructive ideas. Talk to Russia. Meanwhile, just read that US and China have formed an FO-level ’sub-dialogue’ on Central Asia. After the first session in Beijing with Chinese Asst FM Cheng Guoping, US asst secretary of state Robert Blake said discussions were “very productive and constructive”. US wants to get into SCO. Quite obvious US wants China’s support in that noble endeavour. Blake stressed US has commonality of interests with China in CA and wants to “collaborate and coordinate”. He lavishly recognised China’s special interests and “important role” in CA. Incidentally, Blake didn’t feel it important enough to raise Sino-Pak nuclear cooperation on Chashma 3 and 4 reactors! On the contrary, US seeks greater Chinese involvement in the stabilization of Afghanistan. Quite meaningful trends, indeed.
Dear Bhadrakumar; Central Asia is not India’s extended neighbourhood. However, India in my opinion can still have a beneficial relationship with Central Asia if it is willing to make compromises and take timely decisions (Although I don’t see that agility in an old and trite Congress party leadership).
If you look at the map, between India and Central Asia is Pakistan. I wish and pray that the Indian elite recognise this very obvious reality. Now India has three broad options either work through Pakistan, around Pakistan or with Pakistan. Let me explain each one of them.
Work through Pakistan means destabilising Pakistan by making it unstable and ungovernable by supporting different splinter groups within Pakistan, so that Pakistan is eventually truncated and then coerced into Indian submission, thereby allowing Indian trucks to zoom through Wagah and via the Khyber Pass reach Kabul and move on to Central Asia.
The second option is work around Pakistan, which requires having a strategic relationship with Iran so that Iranian ports are used to trans-ship Indian goods onwards to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
The third option is to work with Pakistan, which requires developing win-win options on Kashmir and other disputes with Pakistan leading to open and free trade between Pakistan and India thereby Indian goods could reach Central Asia via Pakistan in addition to an energy corridor from Central Asia to India via Pakistan.
The first option has been tried mostly covertly in the last ten years and so far has not borne fruit. It is also very risky, expensive and disruptive for the whole region. The second option has also been tried in the last ten years but then Indian leadership shunned it under pressure of the Americans, so much for Indian democracy and sovereignty. This option is economically very exhaustive too.
That leaves India with the third option. It’s the only sustainable option. Sadly the leadership of both India and Pakistan failed to develop this option. It would bring immense fruits of joy, happiness and economic benefits for the people of India, Pakistan and also Central Asia. Our standards of living would go up and war clouds as well as internal strife in the whole region would go down substantially. The leadership of both Pakistan and India are to be blamed for not going down this road. However, given that India is 10 times in size to that of Pakistan Indian leadership must take the lion’s share of the blame for failing not only the Indians but the people of this region, which is blessed with immense resources yet still so very poor.
India has to dump the non-sustainable ideas of the neo-cons and relearn Gandhian values if it wants to achieve the position of respect, admiration and strength that awaits it, in the comity of nations. This strategic alliance with the neo-cons is a recipe for disaster for India. If the mighty Americans could not pacify a bunch of Afghan shepherds, who in his right mind can think that any country including China can ever even think to invade India. The Chinese threat to India is a red herring. Wake up Indians, dump the pro-neocon leadership in Delhi and move with confidence, grace and foresight to lift this whole region out of poverty and misery.