An unusually perceptive regular reader of my blogs wrote back to point out that the NATO air strikes on Pakistan took place on 26/11. But if his/her suggestion was that US and NATO were signalling to India on the very ‘anniversary’ of the Mumbai attacks, I won’t quite see it that way. The point is, the timing of the NATO attack was very awkward - even by US standards. My intuition is that the NATO air strike was not a ’stand-alone’ affair and most likely had a background to it. I get the gut feeling that the US blundered into a Pakistani trap.
Pakistan is now boycotting the Bonn Conference on Afghanistan next Monday. The US’s game plan to invite 90 countries to the lovely little town on the Rhine where Beethoven was born (and I lived two happy years) to showcase an Afghan stabilization plan post-2014 justifying the US military bases in the Hindu Kush and obtain international legitimacy for that and thereupon silence the voice of the regional opposition to that ghastly idea is, well, in a spot of trouble.
I don’t know who may have said it first, but without Pakistan (and Taliban), Bonn Conference will really be like Hamlet without the Prince of Denmark. Now, with the Istanbul conference (November 2) where the grand strategy to initiate the US’s New Silk Road and provide a OSCE-type regional security umbrella for AfPak and Central Asia already ending up as farce, US is at a dead end. There ain’t going to be any Afghan peace process, nor a regional consensus on post-2014 and all that is certain is that the US drawdown of troops hasn’t yet been called off.
What a royal mess-up! Richard Holbrooke must be turning in his grave. And, to boot it, if Pakistan shuts down the NATO’s transit routes for a month or so, there is going to be panic in Brussels. What is the alternative? The Northern Distribution Network through Russian territory? But that involves Russia, which is of course a seasoned practitioner of international diplomacy, especially under FM Sergey Lavrov.
I just pondered over two clippings while sipping my morning cup of tea and watching the wet coconut trees swaying in the wind as the north-east monsoon relentlessly embraced Thiruvananthapuram for the past 3 days. Actually, it began the same night of the NATO attack on Pakistan and so far took the lives of 4 poor fishermen who never came back from the deep sea…
Coming back to Afghanistan, I pondered over a statement by Lavrov alleging there is no ‘transparency’ in the US’s policies in Afghanistan and calling into question the need of western military bases in that country. What struck me was Lavrov’s observation that Moscow won’t settle for selective cooperation with US, but would like to go the whole hog and prefer a “clear understanding of both countries’ plans for Central and South Asia.”
Hm. I haven’t heard anything like this since the Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev mooted the doctrine of collective security for Asia some 35 years ago. That is saying a lot - that Moscow doesn’t like the way US is going about in Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bangladesh, Nepal, and the Indian Ocean. In short, Moscow would like to know more about the South Asian vector of ‘America’s Pacific Century’ so that it can “coordinate efforts” with the US!
What struck me even more is how foul the air has become in Russian-American relations. Vladimir Putin bluntly alleged in Moscow yesterday that “representatives of some foreign states” are interfering in Russia’s domestic politics and rallying opposition to his candidacy in the upcoming presidential election in March. No need to second-guess which country he meant, because Putin added, “It would be better if they used this money to pay off their national debt.”
Now, that is an unkind cut, you may say. But Putin’s remark can be a signpost for the GHQ in Rawalpindi to shut down the NATO transit routes for a few weeks till they could hear someone in Brussels weeping audibly. No Sir, no way can the NDN replace the Pakistani transit routes.
Maybe it was maybe not. As the Pakistani positions were under air attack for nearly two hours, it does not appear to be a trap. The Americans are frustrated as their end game for Afghanistan is not being actively supported by Pakistan. They were maybe trying to browbeat Islamabad. How far have the mighty fallen at the hand of afghan goat herders; where a phone call was enough to tame the Pakistani generals, today their supply lines are being cut off. The days of the American raj over Afpak is over. What is left is the drop scene? maybe by 2014 or even earlier Allah knows best.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204753404577066421106592452.html
Russia’s Ambassador to NATO threatens closure of NDN
How interesting
To suggest a trap by sacrificing their own soldiers is an idea which would only make villains out of their Generals. Most would be willing to not doubt their patriotic credentials though their villainy surely extends to dushman like India.
That the terror infrastructure was not created by Pakistan alone is well known. Similarly their nuclear infrastructure was not created by Pakistan alone is also well known. The motivations of the two great powers behind those twin infrastructures, is also well documented. The twin-architecture came in very handy for low-intensity-warefare against India but has now proved useless against US led NATO when the response was scaled up. This offers a lesson for India.
Pakistan can not afford to lose NATO, it must fall in line sooner or later. Else, it would expose itself to a grave risk of pincer movement from its Afghan and Indian borders to establish contiguity between India and Afghanistan which still exists legally, albeit only on legal parchment. Any move to invite China to intensify its presence in POK is likely to be unproductive since the Chinese computations are likely to find it simply not a worthwhile risk keeping in mind the consequent polarization of global polity.
To be India friendly they would need to dismantle terror infrastructure and open access to Afghanistan and bring 26/11 and other wanted men to legal fold. Only then genuine bilateral regional assertion is possible. But this also is not feasible given their specialization in polity of hate which has consumed them for over 60 years. A low-intensity friendship profile which was established in recent SAARC and MFN moves can not surmount the risk of pincer movement for make de jure contiguity a de facto reality.
Further, Pakistan is facing an economic meltdown risk in near future, can not afford to not do business with US led West. It will find that deepening friendship with India to mitigate its economic risk is not feasible only with its low-intensity-friendship mode unless it also has reasonably supportive partnership with US led West.
Whether this scenario is valid or not only future can confirm. It is worth a wait in radio-silence until then.
can there be a massive airlift of supplies similar to berlin airlift ? …if pakistan dont allow NATO supplies…i mean will western powers continue to watch pakistan cow down their supremacy and tie down their armada ?
Pakistan will definitely uses its ‘assets’ in Afghanistan to to disrupt