The closure of the Pakistani transit routes for NATO’s supplies for the Afghan war has lasted for 2 months. There is no end in view and everything depends on the ‘reset’ of US-Pakistan relations. Washington and Brussels initially put on a brave face insisting NATO had alternate means of dispatching supplies and that Pakistan was shooting at its feet. But the sophistry is wearing thin and reports are appearing that the NATO is feeling the pinch.
According to an AP report, the cost of ferrying NATO’s supplies may have shot up by 512 percent as a result of the closure of the Pakistani route. The monthly cost today works out to 115 million dollars as against 17 million dollars through the Pakistani transit routes.
Besides, there is the political cost. The US would be loathe to seek Russian help to expand the scope of the Northern Distribution Network [NDN] in the current climate of Russia-US relations with Moscow frontally obstructing the Barack Obama administration’s agenda for regime changes in Syria and Iran — that is, aside the discord over the US’s missile defence system. (Moscow recently hinted that one of its space vehicles might have malfunctioned and perished due to US electronic interference.)
So, what are the US’s options? Preferably, Washington would hope that Pakistan reopens the transit routes soon. Meanwhile, it has resorted to alternate routes. If American commentators are to be believed, one such route is via India.
This is according to Luis Martinez, ABC News’s ace Pentagon hand: “A [US] Defence official says most of the added costs [for dispatching NATO's supplies] come from the diversion of supplies originally intended to go through Pakistan that now arrive by ship to other countries in the region for eventual air transport into Afghanistan. For example, there is the added cost in diverting some cargo from Pakistani ports to Indian ports where the supplies are either flown into Afghanistan or transported northward by train for delivery through one of the NDN routes.”
Hm. We’re back to square one. When the US invaded Afghanistan in 2001, Delhi offered itself on a platter as a partner country. According to Pervez Musharraf, that fateful Indian offer only prompted him to collaborate with the US invasion and do one better than what Delhi could ever do for Uncle Sam. (In the process, of course, he screwed up his country.)
Curiously, in 2001, Washington politely spurned the Indian offer since Pakistan’s partnership was infinitely more valuable. Today, for cajoling Pakistan to resume its stellar role as partner, US seems to have knocked on the Indian door — and lo and behold, Delhi opened the door, no matter the 2001 snub.
Conceivably, US could be using the Indian route to transfer sensitive military equipments. Whatever be the case, if India is indeed figuring as a trans-shipment point for NATO’s military materials, this will be the first time ever that Delhi is doing big business with the trans-Atlantic alliance. And it will be a historic departure in the Indian policies. Which probably explains Delhi’s decision to keep matters under wraps in the South Block’s basement away from public view.
Washington did well instructing Marc Grossman, special representative for Afghanistan, to add Delhi on his current tour itinerary. Indians should have the satisfaction that they are in the loop. Did Grossman hand in a ‘Thank you’ note from the White House? Obama could have never expected Prime Minister Manmohan Singh ( 79) to bend like David Beckham.
If transfered by Indian train; China would be more than happy to “transfer” NATO “sensitive military equipments” with VERY close check up on every peace of that equipment!
The more “sensitive” it is, the better!
They would have the longest Chinese “sensitive” check up.:-)
Is that really in India’s iterest I wonder…
Bhadrakumar Sahib if India joins NATO’s afghan war it will meet the same fate of NATO. I wish India well, and hope that public opinion will influence India’s leadership to stay away from Afghanistan, like the Chinese are doing. Afghanistan is the longest war of the modern world and NATO does not have many options left. America’s allies are disillusioned and leaving one by one. Just today the French declared that they are reviewing their plans for an early exit. Pakistan is metamorphising right in front of our eyes. Within the next 5 years what shape will it take? Only God knows? India should take a sustainable, strategic and holistic view of the region and avoid fishing in very troubled waters.
since india do not have access to afghanistan and airlift from newdelhi wont be acceptable to pakistan dont you think?
I do not agree to the statement that Pakistan screwed up their country because they allowed supplies to be routed to US/Afghan troops. If Pakistan had whole heartedly joined with the US and ousting the Taliban (which was their own creation), there would be no Taliban left now. The world was behind them , had they taken whatever steps are required to decimate the Taliban.
But instead of they did not learn their lesson and allowed ISI to sustain the Taliban , afterall it was their strategic weapon, who mysteriously gets tanks, arms ammunition, stinger missiles and what not.
Pakistan is screwed up because , it attempted to hunt with the hounds and run with the hares at the same time, a fact that they are still not able to understand.
India is aiding the Afghan government preserve their positions by enabling them to defend themselves by giving supplies. It is foolish for India to standby and allow Taliban to take over.
US is simply using India, to get Pakistan to aid them again. Given the fact that Military advisers could be let back in, it seems working. So eventually Pakistan is going to allow supplies, but with some riders and conditions (if new government takes over in pakistan). Until then India should aid the efforts. This is with our stated policy where we have said that India does not wish a Taliban come back. In addition Taliban has done grievous damage to India, Kandahar Attack,bombing of consulates, even when India did not challenge them after their takeover. So India is doing the right thing by aiding Afghan government to “negotiate” with medieval Taliban.
Regarding the para#5:
How does an Indian train get on the NDN network to Termez? via China?
And when a US military cargo plane takes off from an Indian city, my map tells me it would still require a Pakistani permission to use her air space\ overflight in order to reach Afghanistan in south central asia- am I correct?
So how does India help US in re-provisioning Central Asia? Without Pakistan it is useless.
(Apologize if double posted)