I knew catching up with old friends in Istanbul after a gap of some two or three years was going to be fun — sitting in my favourite cafe by the Bosphorous, watching the ships pass by, sipping raki and slowly letting it fire up the spirit and exhilarate the mind, while talking politics, about God, life… It is only when you come here to this city of heart’s desires that you realise the Turks have a point in insisting that Istanbul is indeed the centre of the world. But this time around, I am getting a sense they are getting their sums wrong.
I’ve never seen such prosperity in Turkey. Turks are living it up. The economy is doing splendidly well. The leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan has given Turkey the political stability that eluded this country for decades and the Turkish genius is finally unbound. The civilian authority reigns supreme in a way as it should be in a real democracy. Erdogan has carved his name in golden letters in the annals of Turkish history and politics. There can be no two opinions here.
Even my militantly secularist friends, especially the female companions who would pour out their visceral distaste for Islamism, grudgingly admit today that Erdogan has delivered. Three years back they would have quarrelled with me if I said a fine word giving expression to my seamless admiration for Erdogan.
But Turkey is getting things horribly wrong in its foreign policy. The curious thing is that Erdogan’s foreign policy lacks a national consensus and yet this politician who is an ardent democrat is nonchalantly pressing ahead. The intellectuals I met are aghast that Turkey is reclaiming its Ottoman legacy and is needlessly getting entangled in the Muslim Middle East.
Yesterday, there was a passionate debate in the Turkish parliament over Erdogan’s Syria policy. I am told that not only the Kemalists but also the ultra-nationalists and even the Kurdish party from the eastern region of Turkey were critical that Turkey is interfering in Syria and it is going to provoke a vicious backlash. But FM Ahmet Davitoglu came up with a spirited defence. He said something like, ‘Turkey owns, leads, serves the new Middle East’.
Haven’t I heard this bravado before? Yes, I used to hear this in the cocktail circuit in Ankara during the tragic Bosnian war. Turkey used to fancy that it was going to ‘own, lead and serve’ the new Balkans. Pray, what happened? Funnily, the Balkans and Central Europe aren’t Turkey’s backyards by any reckoning. They are not even America’s. If newspaper reports are to be believed, they are probably going to be China’s backyard. Not 6 or 10, but sixteen heads of governments travelled to Warsaw from far and wide in the Balkans and Central Europe to greet Premier Wen Jiabao. Yes, these were ‘New Europeans’ who were supposed to be America’s vassals.
Isn’t Turkey following the footsteps of the US — getting bogged down in quagmires some place else where angels fear to tread, and somewhere along the line losing the plot? I feel sorry for this country and its gifted people. When things have been going so brilliantly well, Erdogan has lost his way.
Turkey needs a decade of peace so that it can continue to grow in this way and be a rich country, and Erdogan can complete his ambitious agenda of democratisation and political reform. Instead, he is needlessly asking for trouble, and is risking the spillover of chaos and bloodshed onto his land. This hubris won’t do any good. Mr. Erdogan, watch out: The Chinese are coming! Not only the Balkans but the New Middle East will also be theirs unless you get the plot right.
Turkey ambitions in the multipolar world.
Can world survive two bullies in troubled Middle East (and I’m not talking about Iran)?
The “Chinese are coming” ok.
But till they really arrive (if ever), Turkey Ottoman ambitions in German(EU) turf - Balkans is not realistic at all.
The caliphate is on the rise in Muslim world and all in all Sirya will not play out well for Turkey either way.
Situation for the Kurds will change for better or worse in the near future.
The hubris of Erdogan is chemistry that will start explosive chain reaction, who knows maybe already in new found offshore gas reserves of Greek Cyprus.
Greek bankrupcy is calling for Turkey’s military intervention on behalf of Turk Cyprus.
And if Turkey attacks Greek Cyprus and war spreads to Greece also… I see rather Russia’s interests detrimental to halt Turkey’s Ottoman “super power” ambitions than China’s.
And Russia will stop them (by whatever means necessary) indeed, in Georgia like style.
If so, as consequence Iran with the help of Iraq and new friendly Egypt, will be new regional power of Middle East. A power to be reckon with. Thanks to Mr. Erdogan of course…
Thanks Bhadrakumar for such an incisive and informative piece. Main stream media (prestitutes) do not write such stuff. Turkey’s Erdogan is turning out to be a grand deception. His Islamic background as symbolised by his wife sporting a headscarf and his pretensions as a spokesperson of the miserable Palestinians appear to hood wink the muslims of Turkey. He is acting not in the interest of Turkey nor of Syria. The question is whose interest is he serving? His actions speak louder than words. However, none can accuse him of being in bed with the oppressors as he has cleverly created an aura of being the protector of the oppressed. He is on Syrai supporting the agenda of the oppressors of mankind through deception. I feel sorry for the Turks who have been deceived by Erdogan and they will tatste the bitter harvest of what Erdogan is sowing. The only remedy for the Turks is to politically rise and disown the deception of Erdogan, the sad reality however is that like the Pakistanis, the Kardesh Turks do not have many political options available to them. Tough times ahead for Turkey.
The Chinese are coming!
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Albania, used to be the only European nation under Chinese political influence in the post WW-II era, now their zone of influence, if Mr Bhadrakumar’s projection turns out true, and given their numbers could be the next version of Ottoman. This development is a consequent of policy of engagement per Nixon-Kissinger compromise to which EU nations also acceded, in order to open up the Middle Kingdom.
Nixon-Kissinger compromise on overlooking Tibet and Sinkiang did make pragmatic sense in the light of real-polity doctrine put forth by Dr Kissinger. The policy of engagement also led to incredible expansion of Chinese economy has been a very welcome development. However avoiding the inherent risk in this policy may need explicit de-legitimization of Chinese rule over Tibet and Sinkiang (Xinjiang). The current force projection scenario of China makes it likely that even Dr Kissinger may recommend to annul the compromise of overlooking the issue of sovereignty of the two unfortunate nations.
Thanks for this timely statement. The shift to a bully and nuisance foreign policy is a sad come-down from the lofty No Problems With Neighbours policy that had for a short while put Turkey on the moral map. Looks like they are set to follow the American example — lose your good name and end up poorer in the bargain. Given your background, your views should and no doubt will find circulation in Turkey.