Abe snubs Obama, will apologise, but see Putin nonetheless

The curious goings on in the Far East cannot go unnoticed in South Block, offering a peep into how the US’ closest regional ally sees its ‘rebalance’. A report in The Japan Times on Wednesday discloses that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe intends to defy a demarche by the US President Barack Obama and proceed to visit Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi, as envisaged, in May.

The report from Tokyo quoted ‘sources close to Japan-Russia relations’ as disclosing that Obama appealed to Abe in a phone call on February 9 but Abe “rejected it and will press ahead as planned”. What has come over Abe? Indeed, the media leak gives a flattering message to Moscow and flaunts Tokyo’s ‘independent’ foreign policies toward Russia.

Clearly, Washington would like Tokyo to ‘go slow’ on any normalization with Moscow lest that might be out of sync with the G-7 solidarity to ‘isolate’ Russia. Abe, on the other hand, is smart enough to comprehend that, finally, the Obama administration senses the wisdom of taking the Russia ties out of deep freeze. Why should Japan be a straggler? Early bird catches worms, after all.

A thaw in Russia’s ties with the West will get reflected in the resuscitation of economic ties (which is a priority for both sides) and Tokyo would not want to miss out. Moscow is also keen on fostering economic ties with Japan, as evident from the recent offer that Japanese companies can hold majority equity for upstream development of oil and gas fields in Siberia and the Russian Far East. Moscow feels more comfortable with a scenario where both Chinese and Japanese companies are involved in the development of Siberia and the Far East.

Japan has a notion that Putin is uniquely placed to make concessions in the dispute over the Kuril Islands. Above all, there is the ‘China factor’. Japan’s regional diplomacy remains sub-optimal unless it normalizes with Russia, which in turn might encourage it to move to middle ground, away from the entente with China.

Of course, there are complications – US-Japan defence treaty and deployment of US missile defence system, in particular. But Tokyo gauges that Putin can be decisive and pragmatic.

To be sure, the fracas over China deploying missile fence systems and fighter aircraft on Woody Island in the Paracels exposes that the US’ rebalance in Asia is a lot of hot air. An analysis by Stratfor entitled A Glimpse Into China’s Military Presence in the South China Sea concludes:

• While these air defense systems (on Woody Island) provide a notable military capability, their presence on the island does not necessarily reflect a major escalation… The visibility of the deployment raises the possibility that it was intended to send a political message… While the media response to China’s actions on Woody Island suggests that they represent a watershed moment in the militarization of the South China Sea, in reality they are neither surprising nor particularly meaningful. Despite the widespread attention Beijing’s deployment has received, it is unlikely to shift the calculations of any country involved in the ongoing maritime disputes in the South China Sea.

Quite obviously, the comfort level in Beijing remains high, as evident from the remarks by the foreign ministry spokesperson on Wednesday. A commentary by Xinhua today, even as Foreign Minister Wang Yi concludes a 4-day visit to the US, says:

• Uncle Sam has unfairly pestered China… For the more sober-minded, the South China Sea issue is not and should not be a source of tension between China and the United States. In fact, a vast potential to cooperate exists for them in such areas as the de-militarization in the South China Sea and enhancement of dialogues to reduce misjudgement and divisions.
• Both countries should view their relationship through the lens of a telescope, one that is far-reaching and broad, instead of through a microscope, one that is narrow and short-sighted. Mindful of the importance of bilateral relations, China adopts a cooperative and goodwill attitude, and maintains lines of communication to ease U.S. concerns.

Unsurprisingly, Japan also needs to pursue its self-interests vis-a-vis Russia. Tokyo has scheduled a dense calendar of diplomatic exchanges with Russia through the current 2-3 month period. The deputy foreign ministers met in Tokyo on February 15; Russian FM Sergey Lavrov will visit Tokyo in mid-April. Meanwhile, Abe is despatching National Security Council chief Shotaro Yachi to Washington on Monday to explain to US officials why he (Abe) must see Putin in May before the G-7. Abe has identified the reset of Japan-Russia relations as “a diplomatic task of the highest priority”. 2016 marks the sixtieth anniversary of the 1956 Joint Declaration by Japan and the Soviet Union, in which the two agreed to continue World War II peace treaty negotiations.

But it is hard to see how Moscow can make concessions on the territorial dispute. The strategic importance of that entire region – Sea of Okhotsk, Sakhalin Island, Kamchatka Peninsula – has vastly increased with the great power rivalries building up over the Arctic and Russia developing the so-called Northern Sea Route.

Ironically, Russia has invited China to participate in the development of the Northern Sea Route, which Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin has thoughtfully called the ‘cool Silk Road’. Moscow is rapidly building up the military assets on the Kuril Islands and is paying unprecedented attention to their socio-economic development, underscoring that they will remain an integral part of the Russian Federation.