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Do not underrate the thriving islanders of Indian Ocean

When it comes to the Commonwealth, two things can be said with certainty. One, it remains important for Britain as a platform where its leadership role in a bygone era still remains preserved — like a bonsai tree in the Kew Gardens. Second, Commonwealth is neither an alternative to Euro-Atlanticism nor a challenger to the United States’ global strategies. 

Thus, eyebrows will be raised at the 39th meeting of the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group [CMAG] held in London on Friday. The CMAG is the custodian of the Commonwealth’s fundamental political values, which are enshrined in its charter — commitment to democracy, human rights, rule of law, separation of powers, freedom of expression, good governance, tolerance, role of civil society, etc. 
Thus, the CMAG statement on Friday, here, becomes an eyeopener to the geopolitics of the Indian Ocean. Train the eye on the CMAG’s composition. Yes, Maldives has been readmitted into the CMAG. The foreign ministry spokesman in Male claimed that the invitation to attend the CMAG in London was in “recognition” of the excellent work done by the present government in “strengthening democracy in the Maldives.” 
The Maldives was suspended from the CMAG last year in February following the controversial ouster of President Mohamed Nasheed, but the suspension was revoked in September following the cool-headed estimation subsequently that the transfer of power from Nasheed to President Mohamed Waheed was legitimate. 
Simply put, Commonwealth has eaten the crow, since Maldives has begun moving into the orbit of western influence. The Maldives leadership knows that the country is one of the most important pieces of real estate in the Indian Ocean, especially as the year 2016 draws closer and the ‘lease’  for the US’s Diego Garcia base expires. 
True, Britain can be trusted to manipulate the legal rights and long-standing demand of the displaced native population of Diego Garcia to regain control of their island homeland. Most probably, Britain will press ahead with the extension of the lease of Diego Garcia beyond 2016, but then Gan base in Maldives would still hold its attraction. 
Besides, there can always be a slip between the cup and the lip and the US is right in discreetly negotiating a back-up arrangement in the Maldives, which is also located strategically. 
Clearly, this is no time to lose sleep over the fate of democracy and human rights or the rule of law in the Maldives. Ironically, even as the CMAG was meeting in London on Friday, the World Organization Against Torture, based in Geneva, came out with a statement highlighting that the Maldives government has decided to shut down 70% of the island’s NGOs on some flimsy technical grounds apparently in violation of the country’s own constitution.
In sum, the West’s democracy project in the Maldives is mothballed for the present and its revival largely depends on Male’s final decision on signing a Status of Forces Agreement with the US. By the way, President Waheed recently visited Doha at the gracious invitation of the Emir of Qatar, which is where the US Central Command is located. Got it?  
Now, to return to the CMAG meeting on Friday, it is equally noteworthy that Sri Lanka was not on the main agenda, either. Tamil Nadu leaders Jayalalithaa and M Karunanidhi are barking up the wrong tree by seeking a reversal of the decision to hold the next Commonwealth summit in Colombo in November. 
In principle, Canada (which has a sizable Sri Lankan Tamil community) backs the demand from Chennai, but when the crunch time came at the CMAG meeting, Canadian foreign minister John Baird who was present didn’t make an issue of it. 
At any rate, CMAG point blank ignored the petition from the influential Human Rights watch to recommend a change of venue for the 2013 CHOGM. 
Delhi is obviously watching keenly from the sidelines and would have noted that the CMAG meeting in London in the weekend simply ignored the Sri Lankan issue. Being a seasoned player in international diplomacy, Colombo has begun sizing up the potential to bait the western powers with its great location in the Indian Ocean. 
It has thought up the idea of the mega event titled Sri Lanka Ports, Trade and Logistics Conference and Exhibition to be held in Colombo on May 1-3. Colombo hopes to cash in on the “new shift in the maritime industry” from the north to the south by positioning itself as a dynamic part of a Southern Maritime Zone between Dubai and Singapore. 
Who says Sri Lanka is Beijing’s baby? How naive our pundits are in underestimating the resilience of small countries such as Sri Lanka or the Maldives to take to the Great Game. For them, China is not the only game in town. 
Make no mistake, Sri Lanka is determined to capitalize on its economic boom, too. The western analysts are increasingly spotting it as the next ‘Asian Tiger’. An article last week in Forbes magazine authored by the governor of Sri Lanka’s Central Bank Ajith Cabraal underscores that Colombo is willing to be “more symmetrical” if only Washington moves away from its narrow focusing on “a short episode of 2009.”
Cabraal ably argues that the US has “not yet lost” Sri Lanka and, in fact, Colombo would “welcome a recalibration of US policy towards a more symmetrical US strategy that takes into consideration the key strategic, economic and trade perspectives” in the long-term interests of the two countries. The Forbes is here. 

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By M K Bhadrakumar – April 28, 2013


Our China-Pakistan punditry is a sham

They trooped out of the woodwork, our China experts, no sooner than the media reports appeared about the Chinese incursions into the territory we regard as ours in the Leh region. All sorts of theses are being expounded with a barely-hidden note of triumphalism that the remarkable achievements of Indian diplomacy in the recent period with regard to India’s relations with China could now be debunked as irrelevant or ridiculed as inconsequential or even derailed by the time Premier Li Keqiang arrives in Delhi. 

In a way, it is a replay of the media hysteria whipped up vis-a-vis Pakistan a few months ago over the so-called LOC incidents. In both cases, there is paucity of information, to put it mildly, as to what exactly led to the ‘incidents’ involving these neighbouring countries. 
Put differently, we simply do not know enough as to what has been the conduct of the Indian forces on our side of the LOC and the LoAC. Frankly, we know nothing. 
We often lament that in Pakistan and China the armed forces and the security establishments  are more influential than the foreign ministries on matters of national security. But is the matrix substantially different in our case? 
We, average Indians outside of the government, only know what the neighbouring country did unto our country. It seems we are entitled to know only that much. 
But on that basis, our moronic pundits and media anchormen decide to get indignant and vituperative and to rush to making bizarre judgments as to the motives of the other party. 
Matters concerning relations with important neighbours such as Pakistan and China deserve a far better level of intellectual discussion. Most important, there should be intellectual honesty in such discussions. 
It belittles India’s image in the world community if our discourses descend to such manifestly pedestrian and patently dishonest level as is presently happening. 
The fact of the matter is that it is only the government which has a complete picture of what happened on the LOC or the LoAC. It only knows how the Indian forces’ conduct has been on our side of the LoC and the LoAC. 
It only can answer the following: Have our forces too been straying into territories which the other party claims as theirs? Have we too in the past beheaded their soldiers and been head hunters? Have we too erected structures or located forward posts or flown helicopters or built air strips on the disputed land so as to derive unilateral advantage? 
Most important, was any of that done as a matter of considered policy laid down from Delhi or was it a case of the macho men pushing the envelope? 
These are key questions. Just about everything — when something ‘new’ happens on the LOC or the LoAC — depends on the answers to these questions. 
In the meanwhile, it is improper to isolate a particular incident and insist that is where history begins. Of course, it is downright stupid to go berserk and begin to attribute motives to other side’s actions without being in a position to claim with certainty that those were precipitate actions which they carried out with ulterior motives. 
Alas, what we have here instead are delusionary accounts. If this is the level at which China (or Pakistan) studies are conducted in our prestigious universities and think tanks, god only can help our motherland. 
Not a single country in the world has articulated an opinion so far supportive of our grievance in Leh. Evidently, they know better. They know our punditry is a sham. 

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By M K Bhadrakumar – April 27, 2013


India optimistic about Pak election

Strictly speaking, diplomatic propriety demanded that External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid desisted from commenting on the Pakistani political scene. But he did — and he will get away with it. 

For, these are patently friendly remarks — under the circumstances — and the minister made them in a positive forward-looking spirit, and indeed there is no gainsaying the fact that India is a ’stakeholder’, so to speak, on the outcome of the Pakistani elections and to pretend otherwise will be dissimulation of the highest grade. 
Khurshid is cautiously optimistic. How do we pick his mind? Alas, MEA is yet to develop a common practice in the chancelleries of most serious countries to transmit authoritative versions of their foreign minister’s remarks on ALL occasions, including media interactions. Thus, we are left with no choice to agonise over agency reports. 
This would be risky, but Khurshid’s remarks, here, seem to suggest Delhi is very much cognisant of what I underlined earlier in my blog, namely, that something has changed significantly in the Pakistani mindset — at the level of politicians and public opinion — regarding ties with India. 
Khurshid calls it the ‘peace constituency’, meaning, perhaps, that it is one amongst other bodies of opinion in Pakistan, but then, he also noted that it is a ‘growing’ constituency. 
Evidently, Delhi anticipates a coalition government taking shape in islamabad after the parliamentary election in May, but what matters is whether it will be a coalition of like-minded constituents that subscribe to the ‘peace constituency.’ But Khurshid is being deliberately cautious here. 
Any coalition government in Pakistan will bear striking resemblance to our own — a big national party cobbling together a coalition but remaining more equal than its partners in policymaking. Thus, Samajwadi Party and National Conference leaderships might have asked for a summary rollback of India-China ties, but the government has no intentions to adopt such gibberish as policy.
These are still early days, but Pakistan will probably have a government built around the Pakistan Muslim League (N) led by Nawaz Sharif. To my mind, such a government will want to do business with India and the challenge facing us is that the hurlyburly of our domestic politics should not be allowed to come in the way of responding to overtures. 
With a cerebral minister heading MEA after a long time, this is a good time for South Block to do some power games. For a start, what are the options to demonstrate good intentions toward Pakistan by revisiting any of the ‘doable issues’ — without losing sight of vital national interests, of course — at a most difficult period in India’s current history when chaotic domestic politics and an anaemic economy combine to make the bar of realism seem improbably high to clear? 
The point is, India also needs a leap of faith to jettison the entrenched belief that the relations with Pakistan can at best be managed, and just getting by is the best we can do. All problems can be solved and if they aren’t we need to introspect and find the reason why. Is it weakness, diffidence, incompetence or plain malfeasance to blame? 

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By M K Bhadrakumar – April 27, 2013


A turning point in Syria

The Syrian problem takes an abrupt turn with the latest American pronouncements that chemical weapons have been used in the fighting. The dramatic statement by the US secretary of defence Chuck Hagel on Thursday while on a visit to Abu Dhabi, here, reversing his own stand only earlier this week, alongside the letter addressed by the White House to Senator John McCain, here, would overnight change the Syrian matrix. 

According to the US statements, Syrian regime may have crossed the ‘red line’ that President Barack Obama set that would trigger a US intervention. Senator McCain has promptly called for the US arming the Syrian rebels. Although the White House letter contains the caveat that more verification of intelligence reports is needed, pressure will mount from now on for Obama to “do more” on Syria.
This is most certainly a turning point. What cannot be overlooked is that the U-turn in the US stance followed the meeting of the foreign ministers of NATO in Brussels where Syria topped the agenda. Secretary of State John Kerry had openly called on NATO to prepare for a response.  
Significantly, Israel (here) and Britain (here) have also alleged that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons. The Israeli statement coincided with Hagel’s visit to Tel Aviv. A high degree of coordination between the US, Britain and Israel probably explains all this. 
Russia and China will come under pressure to step aside and allow a full-fledged investigation by the United Nations. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has said that United Nations is indeed ready to take the plunge to open a file on Syria’s WMD, which of course could be the beginning of a slide on a slippery slope of western intervention fraught with dangerous consequences as had happened over Iraq. 

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By M K Bhadrakumar – April 26, 2013


Kerala BJP fails to encash Modi card

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s 3-hour foray into Kerala politics yesterday turned out to be anti-climactic. He failed to electrify the political air and except for the Communist Party of India (Marxist), no one really felt agitated, including the powerful Muslim organisations in the state. 

The tallest of Kerala’s communist leaders V S Achuthanandan, who is an iconic figure for the Ezhava community, is yet to make any statement on the move by the Sivagiri Mutt to invite Modi. VS confined himself to underscoring the oddity of Modi being associated with Sree Narayana Guru. 
Curiously, there has been a deafening silence on the part of senior communist leaders who hail from the Ezhava community. 
They cannot but be aware of the strong undercurrent of alienation in the Ezhava community, which formed the backbone of the communist movement in Kerala.  
Besides, for Ezhavas, it is extremely difficult to condemn the Sivagiri Mutt. The spiritual bondage is thicker than political ideology. 
In the event, did the CPM state leadership overreact? Unfortunately, some intemperate statements were made about the monks at the Sivagiri Mutt. Even assuming that the monks were politically incorrect, such uncouth invectives are unwarranted. 
Was it a case of bad nerves or was there a genuine fear that Modi might make inroads into the social base of the communist parties? There are no easy answers. 
It now transpires that a clutch of self-styled Ezhava ‘leaders’ manipulated the Sivagiri monks to inviting Modi. Principal amongst them is apparently a local media organisation. There are also persisting rumours that business interests are involved. 
Evidently, the state Bharatiya Janata Party  leadership decided to overlook the stench in the sub-soil and grabbed the opportunity to hoist the saffron flag at Varkala, which was a bastion of communists. 
However, whether the BJP is going to make net electoral gains out of all this in the 2014 poll remains to be seen. For the present, Congress Party seems to be the only winner. 
To my mind, BJP made an error of judgment by aligning itself with the self-styled creamy layer of the Ezhava community, who claim to represent the community. But then, beggars can’t be choosers. Malayalis have a habit of lending their ear to national figures but casting their votes at the election time on the basis of independent judgment. In the historic 1957 poll for Lok Sabha, Jawaharlal Nehru drew massive crowds in Kerala, which ultimately saw the communists storming into power. Probably, Modi sensed it, too. 
He was somewhat ‘off colour’ yesterday. He seemed to be in two minds. Obviously, his ‘development’ plank has few takers in Kerala. Politically, it would have been unwise for Modi to don the OBC hat at this juncture when he hopes to rise above caste and religion. 
There was no inspiring ‘message’ in his rambling one-hour speech in Hindi, which was a hotch-potch of musings about Hindu unity. It wasn’t even ’soft’ Hindutva.
If on a scale of 10, Modi stood at eight or nine at the Sri Ram College in Delhi or at the FICCI, he couldn’t have been more than three or four at Sivagiri. There was nothing of that combative tone associated with a ’strong’ leader like Modi. 
The point is, Ezhavas are a well-educated community today with the discerning power to make out false coins. They don’t have a herd mentality and each would prefer to interpret Narayana Guru’s teachings on his own. In fact, most of the ‘creamy layer’ lead a decadent lifestyle, which Guru would have found appalling. 
Suffice to say, if there is going to be an erosion taking place inevitably in the Ezhava base of the Left parties, the reason for that lies elsewhere. Simply put, the Left parties are taking the Ezhava voters for granted. 
After the VS era in Left politics, Ezhavas are going to have a hard time to emotionally bond with the communist parties, especially the new generation with rising aspirations and discerning capacity. They realise that they deserve far better political influence than today.
But the big question is whether the BJP could genuinely represent the Ezhava aspirations and supplant the Left parties. As things stand, it cannot, being an unapologetically upper caste outfit, which is faction-ridden and uninspiring. 
To be sure, Modi’s rise within the BJP itself has been a great exception. Arguably, he was speaking for himself when he lamented in his Sivagiri speech yesterday that the evil of untouchability is persisting in the political sphere in our country. 

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By M K Bhadrakumar – April 25, 2013


Pakistan’s leap of faith vis-a-vis India

The news coming out of Pakistan’s electoral politics seems to me like a breath of fresh air in an otherwise increasingly depressing environment for political accountability in the region. The largest democracy in the region, India, is failing to cross the bar of democracy, as the shameful reports of the JPC probe into 2G scam underscores. 

And, this is after over six decades of interrupted, uninterruptible democracy. The JPC has turned out to be a sham affair, a political circus with menagerie from the Congress Party’s stable with a pre-determined agenda to whitewash the UPA  government no matter what it takes. A telling cartoon in today’s Hindu speaks for itself. To be sure, the nadir has been reached.
In comparison, Pakistan’s political parties are displaying a remarkable degree of maturity. The reports show that India, once again, does not figure as an ‘election issue’, which in plain terms means that Pakistan’s ties with India no longer would lend itself as a topic of controversy. 
Even more important is that Kashmir issue too has ceased to be an electoral issue in Pakistan. True, all political parties pay attention to the issue — being a ‘core issue’ for the country —  but they would advocate an amicable solution through peaceful means and negotiations with India. 
This extraordinary leap of faith does not come as surprise. It confirms that a transformative shift in the Pakistani public perceptions of India has indeed been taking place in the recent years. However, what I found truly extraordinary is the manifesto of Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim (League). 
The PML (N) has pledged to work for regional cooperation and to tap into India’s connectivity with the Central Asian region and Iran. Specifically, it expresses support for the energy projects. Bravo! 
The PML (N) stance is important for three reasons. One, PML (N)  is a national party with a strong political base in the heartland province of Punjab. Two, it has links with the Islamic parties. Three, it is credited with real prospects to emerge as the ruling party in the May elections. 
The western critics of PML (N) are taking a critical view that Nawaz Sharif is an Islamist in disguise. Walter Russell Mead wrote in a blog this week, “Sharif’s PML-N, hugely popular and influential in Punjab, takes a soft approach to Shiite-hating organizations like Lashkar-e-Jhangvi… Sharif is expected to be the next Prime Minister, and Ludhianvi and some of his colleagues are expected to win seats in the national assembly. Welcome to Pakistan.” 
This is a (mis)perception that is often ideologically motivated. The crux of the matter is that NS may not be easy to manipulate on issues such as long-term American military presence in the region. NS is a realist and he is right that the religious parties should be legitimate players on Pakistan’s political arena and should not be elbowed out. I would rate NS himself as a ’secularist’ — quintessentially.
The right-of-centre government in India can do serious business with a PML (N) government under NS’s leadership. Remember, NS was the harbinger of market reforms in the subcontinent — and not Manmohan Singh — and Pakistan outstripped India in economic growth at that time. 

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By M K Bhadrakumar – April 24, 2013


US shuns the right side of Pakistan’s history

The United States has given a huge boost to the Pakistani army chief General Ashfaq Kayani at a critical turning point in Pakistani politics. Secretary of State John Kerry had a dinner meeting at Amman with Kayani last month. A team of senior US officials met Kayani at the GHQ in Rawalpindi in the weekend. 

It has since been announced that Kerry will be having a ‘trilateral’ with Kayani and Afghan President Hamid Karzai in Brussels on Wednesday. 
(Karzai is a reluctant partner, as his open invitation to China to exploit the geopolitics of the region plainly underscores even as he left for Brussels.)
Hmm. Three meetings for Kayani with American interlocutors within a month’s time. What needs to be noted is that all this is happening despite the fact that within a few weeks Pakistan is going to have an elected government. 
Put differently, all this is happening precisely because Pakistan is going to have an elected government very soon. 
The heart of the matter is that both Washington and the Pakistani military leadership are viewing with unease bordering on trepidation the prospect of an elected government headed by Nawaz Sharif, which is the probable outcome of the parliamentary election in May. 
The US apprehends that Sharif will be a difficult customer, given his ‘desi’ outlook and his links with the ‘anti-US’ Islamic parties (who may well form part of his coalition government), while the army dreads that once ensconced in power in Islamabad he will inexorably push the envelope on civilian supremacy in policymaking. 
Both are valid fears and it explains Kerry’s manifest rush to get peace talks somehow started with Kayani’s help by exploiting the latter’s need of US support in the upcoming tussle with a Sharif-led civilian government. 
Alas, the US is once again bolstering the Pakistani army’s dominance at the cost of democratic forces. And it comes as no surprise that the Pakistani generals are using the American crutch to maintain their dominance in domestic politics. 
Quite obviously, the return of former military dictator Pervez Musharraf to Pakistan fits into this paradigm. Musharraf was America’s trusted man in Islamabad and being a highly compromised personality, he now has no choice but to subserve US interests till the end of his life. 
In sum, Musharraf has been inducted into Pakistan’s domestic politics with great deliberation rather than arriving on his own accord, as is being projected. 
He will now be playing a dual role — as the bridge between the Pakistani military and the country’s political class and at the same time as the courier between Rawalpindi and Washington. It is a role he is uniquely suited to play. 
Without doubt, Kayani can be trusted to ensure that Musharraf gets incrementally rehabilitated as a full time politician in Pakistan. 
It has been a bumpy ride so far for Musharraf, which is only to be expected, considering the huge backlog he created before going into exile. 
But the army trusts his capability and grit to weather this storm and survive. On its part, the army is steadily creating an opinion  from behind the scenes that Musharraf should not be ‘humiliated.’ 
Indeed, Musharraf will face rough weather for a while but he can be ultimately expected to emerge with a key role in Pakistani politics serving the army’s and the US’s interests. 
Meanwhile, what is happening is a dress rehearsal in the sense that Nawaz Sharif will come under compulsion to go slow in cracking the whip at Musharraf or the army — or to pursue policies that may adversely impact the US’ interests. 
The mother of all ironies is that Washington ought to know that the democratization process in Pakistan is virtually unstoppable now and yet it is opting out of being on the ‘right side of history.’ 
The reason is not far to seek — it is Kayani and Musharraf who can serve the US regional strategy at this juncture, and not Nawaz Sharif. 
From the US perspective, the dream team in these critical months would have been Kayani plus an Asif Zardari - Musharraf combine. But then, young Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is only 25 years old and at that age, young men tend to be idealistic. 

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By M K Bhadrakumar – April 23, 2013


Obama revisits Chinamerica

A minor detail of what the Pentagon billed as the “weeklong Asia Trip” by Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is that the general’s itinerary earmarks one day each in South Korea and Japan, which leaves him with full five days to devote to China. 

This is an interesting turn to the US’ famous rebalancing to Asia. Clearly, Dempsey’s mission aims to allay Chinese apprehensions regarding the US’ “pivot to Asia.” A VOA report notes, “The top US military officer [Dempsey] is trying to reassure China that the United States wants to be a ’stabilizing influence’ in Asia-Pcific region.” 
Dempsey’s Chinese counterpart Fang Fenghui has been quoted as telling the media in a joint press conference, “The Asia-Pacific region has become the most vigorous place in the world and we share the responsibility of jointly safeguarding the peace and stability in the region… We respect the US interests in the region and are glad to see the United States play a constructive role on Asia-Pacific affairs.” 
According to the Xinhua report (here), Feng suggested that China and US should improve “communication and coordination” at the mil-to-mil level so as to “deal with any possible crisis in the region.” 
To be sure, President Barack Obama has given a flying start to the US’ China diplomacy. The high officials from Washington, who headed for Beijing so far since the new leadership took over in China have been Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, Secretary of State John Kerry and Gen Dempsey who arrived on Sunday. 
Deputy Secretary of State William Burns is arriving in Beijing on Wednesday.  Beijing is simply delighted, as a report on Dempsey’s visit in government-owned China Daily amply underscores (here). All this is building up the momentum for the next round of the US-China Strategic Dialogue in July. 
Meanwhile, Track II is also in full cry. Henry Kissinger is back in China and is probably going to be received by President Xi Jinping, which will mean he’d receive two VIPs from America this week — the other one being Dempsey, of course. 
Equally, the Schwarzman Scholars Program is an American initiative, which takes the breath away. Again, Xi has commended the initiative.  
What a splendid piece of foresight that Delhi didn’t buy into the former US defence secretary Leon Panetta’s open invitation to India to be a “lynchpin” in the US’ rebalancing strategy! Panetta has retired from public life, Obama has a brand new team that views China differently, and had we fallen for Panetta’s thesis, by now we would have found ourselves in the ash heap. 
But then, there hasn’t been a single top official from Washington visiting Delhi so far, either, in Obama’s second term. It is a punishing hiatus. That reminds me of what another famous Leon — Leon Trotsky —  once said when the Mensheviks refused to play ball: “You are pitiful, isolated individuals! You are bankrupts. Your role is played out. Go where you belong from now on — into the dustbin of history!” 

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By M K Bhadrakumar – April 22, 2013


Modi causes flutter among Kerala politicians

Thiruvanathapuram woke up in the weekend to see big saffron-tinged billboards bearing pictures of Narendra Modi pasted all over the city walls announcing his arrival here on Wednesday. Modi is a rare visitor to this remote part of India and his charisma remains untested here. 

But the real surprise is that Modi is making a quick 2-hour dash to this city exclusively to be the chief guest at the Sivagiri Mutt jubilee celebrations. 
Adrenaline has begun rushing down the veins of Kerala’s politicians. They fear Modi would churn up the stagnant cesspool of Kerala’s party politics. It is a complicated story. 
Clearly, it is not Modi’s ‘development’ plank that has attracted the organisers of the function at the Sivagiri Mutt. 
Malayalis generally have a distaste for ‘development.’ It hardly matters to them whether Modi’s model is better than Nitish Kumar’s, because they happen to live far better than Gujaratis or Biharis. 
The welfare system is so good that the Malayali won’t like Modi-style market forces. Life is easy and purchasing power parity is far above the national average and the Malayali probably got it right that his is the best development model.
Again, Modi may just be the ’strong’ leader who Uma Bharati recommends and whom (North) India needs. But given his laid-back attitude to life, the Malayali actually prefers ‘weak’ leaders whom he can manipulate. 
Then again, Modi’s third famous plank — Hindutva politics — also seems out of place here where the Muslims and Christians are the ruling class and are in no mood to roll over and make way for the VHP and the Bhajrang Dal.
Now, besides the above, Modi has yet another plank, although he doesn’t talk about it — namely, his OBC identity. It is Modi’s OBC identity that is coming into play on Wednesday here in Thiruvananthapuram more than his development plank, his strong leadership qualities or his impeccable credentials as a Hindu nationalist.  
The point is, Sivagiri Mutt is the spiritual Mecca of Kerala’s  biggest OBC community, Ezhavas, who account for anywhere upto 20-25 percent of the state’s population. 
The Ezhavas ought to be by their sheer numbers the ruling elites of the state by birthright, but ended up instead as the perennial runners-up in the steeple chase of Kerala politics. They are essentially the foot soldiers of the Left movement in Kerala. 
Unsurprisingly, the Sivagiri Mutt invited the venerable CPM leader V S Achutanandan to inaugurate the jubilee celebrations on Wednesday. Generally speaking, no major public function at Sivagiri is conceivable without a prominent communist leader attending it.
VS promptly accepted the invitation but since backed out when he came to know from the billboards about Modi’s presence. VS has protested that Modi’s “actions are completely against the teachings of Sri Narayana Guru [spiritual guide of the Ezhava community].”
To be sure, the Left parties smell a rat — rightly so. The CPM leader Pinarayi Vijayan sized up the obscure logarithm and has alleged that Congress Party is orchestrating the entire affair from behind the scenes. 
Which is entirely conceivable, too. The 2014 poll is drawing close and the Congress-led ruling United Democratic Front government is in terrible shape. Apropos of the Left parties’ ascendancy, Congress’ best option is to resort to guerilla war. 
Any drift by the Ezhava community toward BJP, away from the Left parties, would be just the ’swing’ needed at this juncture for the Congress to exploit to its advantage, considering that elections in Kerala are closely fought.  
Meanwhile, it has come to light that a minister in the Kerala cabinet who visited Ahmedabad a few weeks ago apparently to take a look at Gujarat’s development model, had a quiet meeting with Modi. But, incredibly enough, Congress chief minister Oommen Chandy claims he was not in the loop. 
On the contrary, BJP lost no time to acknowledge that it knew about the historic meeting in Ahmedabad. Which, in turn, lends credence to Vijayan’s allegation that Modi’s presence at the Sivagiri Mutt function could be a set-up by the Congress. 
At any rate, Modi must be having a game plan worked out in his computer brain. The point is, Ezhavas are at a crossroads politically. A sizeable section of them feel their class interests do not lie any longer with the Left parties. 
They are wondering how they could somehow climb the elitist bandwagon rather than be content with their subaltern role in Left politics. 
This is where Modi scores over Mayawati in the battle for the heart of the Ezhava. Modi is an action-oriented leader and there are rumours circulating here that he could provide fast track for some self-styled Ezhava leaders from Kerala to set up industries in Gujarat. 
So far the BJP failed to attract the Ezhavas because of its uninspiring leadership and its image as an unapologetically upper caste outfit. But the ‘Modi effect’ can help the BJP. 
All in all, therefore, how Modi fares on Wednesday evening at the Sivagiri Mutt will be keenly watched. Will be don the OBC cap?  
Most certainly, it will be an unlike role for Modi to stand up and be counted as an OBC leader, when he prefers to be known for his leadership qualities. 
Modi cannot but factor in that a backlash is slowly, steadily building up among the Hindus of Kerala cutting across caste divides that they have been relegated as second class citizens despite being something like half the population. 
But, equally, Modi is bound to see the possibilities of the moment while addressing the mammoth OBC audience on Wednesday evening. The Ezhavas are just about recognizing that he is actually one of them. 
On balance, therefore, he might present a mildly intoxicating mix to his audience — Hindutva cocktail topped up with a touch of OBC squash.

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By M K Bhadrakumar – April 21, 2013


Forceful call on Obama to rethink Iran sanctions

In the past week, the discourse within the United States regarding the policy towards Iran swung notably toward the argument favouring the diplomatic option. Two influential reports contributed to this — one by the United States government and the other, arguably more prestigious, by a galaxy of America’s best-known diplomatists, strategic thinkers and Iran specialists. 

The statement made by the Director of National Intelligence James Clapper on Thursday before the Senate Intelligence Committee in Washington while presenting the 2013 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the USG contained the intelligence community’s hard assessment of the state of play in Iran’s nuclear programme. Clapper was candid in underscoring that the Iran threat should not be exaggerated and a political/diplomatic option is viable. 
Page 7 of Clapper’s statement (here) makes the assessment that Iran posseses the scentific, technical and industrial capability to produce nuclear weapons, but it has not taken a decision to pursue a nuclear weapon programme and the Iranian leadership is open to influence by the international community. Iran’s security needs and the external security enviornment would be factors in the deicison-making and the Iranian leadership is trying to balance “conflicting objectives.” The statement viewed Iran’s missile capabilties as quite impressive and its ballistic missiles, in particular, as capable of delivering WMD. 
The second report (here), which is part of the so-called Iran Project, was released in Washington on Wednesday and gains in stature thanks to the association with it of prestigious figures such as Zbigniew Brzezinski, Thomas Pickering, Leslie Gelb, James Dobbins, Joseph Nye, George Perkovich, Gary Sick, Michael Hayden, Carla Hills, Richard Lugar, Frank Wisner and many, many others. 
The Iran Project has consistently stood for engaging Iran rather than ‘containing’ that country because of its strategic importance and its standing in the Islamic world. The latest report is interesting insofar as it pushes for a rethink on the Barack Obama administration’s current sanctions policy. 
The report says that the sanctions policy may be backfiring and could eventually only cause long-term alienation between the Iranian nation and the US. Besides, the sanctions have neither stopped Iran’s nuclear programme nor isolated it regionally. 
It explains how normalization with Iran can help the US regional strategies with regard to a host of regional issues such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and the Arab Spring in general. It flags that the US and Iranian intelligence should partner in counterterrorism activities directed against Al-Qaeda, since both countries have been victims of terrorism.
The report examines the strategic options available for the Obama administration to strengthen the diplomatic track. The prestigious report will most certainly land on Obama’s desk in the Oval Office. To my mind, Obama cannot have any major quarrel with its content. 
The core issue is whether the Congress would buy these arguments. In fact, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted this week to ratchet up the Iran sanctions.
Meanwhile, the Iran tensions are not a bad thing at all, as it fuels massive purchases of Us arms by the Persian Gulf countries. Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel is finalizing arms exports worth $10 billion during his Middle East tour next week. 
Quite obviously, the present time is an interim period for the Iranian presidential election in June to get over. The diplomatic pot is kept just about simmering on low flame until then. 

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By M K Bhadrakumar – April 20, 2013