Rahul Writes

A PTI report tells that Government of India has lowered its estimate of GDP growth, from around 9% to 8% now. Pranab Mukherjee says this is due to high oil prices and higher rates of interest done to curb inflation. “If oil prices continue to rise, it would be difficult to achieve higher GDP. GDP may come down to 8 per cent from [the projected] 9 per cent,” Mr. Mukherjee said.  

But what no one is bothered about is how large scale corruption in government impacts GDP growth of a nation. I had given a thought on this before and I was certain that as corruption increases, GDP growth of the nation should come down. Also, more corrupt people sending money in Swiss and other foreign banks makes the situation worse too. Reviewing the way our current govt was managing the affairs and the highest than ever corruption cases and scandals coming out in the open, I thought this was going to cost us dear. But I didn’t have empirical data to prove my point. Now, thanks to the US researchers, I have something to fall back on.  

Mushfiq Swaleheen of Florida Gulf Coast University has done a research on exactly this topic of how corruption impacts GDP growth. His study is titled “Economic growth with endogenous corruption: an empirical study”. As such his major discovery was that “In deeply corrupt countries such as Congo, incidences of corrupt practices actually enhance economic growth, perhaps by helping companies sidestep onerous rules.” But that is only at the extreme. I understand India doesn’t fit into that set. But going one step ahead, his finding was really hitting for countries like India:  

“For a country with average endemic corruption, a one-standard-deviation increase in corrupt incidences depresses per-capita GDP growth by 0.12 percentage points.” 

Now this is exactly what I used to say, and what logically followed too! And now we have the statistics too! No wonder when our GDP figures would come out next year, and if we see a major debacle, our government and economist ministers will blame it on inflation, higher rates, oil prices, etc, and no one will speak about corruption. But we the public, should understand and think it over. After all, this country doesn’t belong to a Sonia Gandhi or a Pranab Mukherjee alone – this country belongs to all of us! And all of us can make a difference by democratic means too! Awareness is the foundation of any democracy.  

- Rahul

Prime Ministers of India are perhaps the most erroneous among their peers. Errors, we define, by the admission of the culprits. Otherwise when one sits down to judge, right from the creation of this nation to what not – all would seem erroneous. So we had our first prime minister Nehru making an error which he termed as “Himalayan Blunder”. Next in the line when Indira ji made an error of a horror. An error of ego, to be precise. Doesn’t matter what tag it deserves, but it resulted in hundreds of Sikhs massacred on the streets. Third in the line, the clean shaven Rajiv did an error too. Two innocent errors actually – of sending troops to kill our own children in Lanka and of entertaining some guests from his in-laws circles. “Q”uantum of error – but doesn’t count. After all we need heroes to worship, right? So Rajiv remains a hero despite his errors and their repercussions. And all other small people – from LB Shastri to Narsimha Rao – were less of a hero no matter what they did. When we see such great error-makers along with their blunders and follies, our current PM’s self-touted “error of judgment” seems a petty one. It goes even without a flutter. But what if it was not an error? 

What if it was not an error? 

What if it was a well thought-out decision? 

Who pays for it? 

Dr. Singh has accepted his responsibility. But is that all he thinks we deserve?

Mahatma Gandhi said India lives in the villages. Whenever I visited my naani-ke-gaon, my mother would point to the fact that people in villages were honest and lived a more virtuous life than those in the cities. And as I grew up, I agreed with this notion. But it didn’t have to continue for long, as I saw. Each time when my government waived the farmers’ bank loans, it punished the honest and industrious farmers who had planned and cared to return back the loans they took. Such loan waivers, which matched the election schedules to create the right atmosphere for the UPA government to win, rewarded the lazy and corrupt farmers who would take bank loans and would fund their wrong habits instead of using the money to invest in their farm lands. Of course there were farmers who genuinely benefited from the loan waivers, but any other scheme which helped the poor or Below Poverty Line villagers would have helped them anyway. Farm loans waivers were an election gimmick.  

I think now we are about to reap the results of our government’s gambles. As this report tells us: 

All government banks are reporting an increase in their bad debts on farms loans ranging between 80% and 2000% in the first nine months of 2010-11. The net NPAs of all public sector banks till December 2010 increased by 70% compared to 46% in 2009-10.  

State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur reported the highest increase in non-performing assets (NPAs) on agriculture loans at 2,000% in April-December 2010. The increase in SBI’s bad loans has gone up by 80% compared to the bank’s total farm loan NPAs in the previous fiscal. Andhra Bank reported a 168% rise in NPA while in case of Allahabad Bank, it was more than 157% and for Corporation Bank, it was 205%. Bad farm loans of Bank of India increased by 100% in the current fiscal till December 2010. 

Source: “Bad debts on farm loans pile up”, 7 Mar 2011, TNN, http://m.economictimes.com/PDAET/articleshow/7644305.cms  

Such high proportions of bad-loans would force the government to waive them again. (This culture of loan-waiving would make the rural banking system ineffective in the long term. People will take loans in order not to pay them off; and banks would be forced by govts to keep granting larger sums of loans to rural area. This is what I call “Killing the golden goose”). In most probability, PSBs would get their due in the form of government money. But ultimately from where does the subsidy come from? It comes from our tax-returns to the government! So in a way, we, the responsible citizens, are funding the corrupt practices happening in the hinterlands…  

8th of March is celebrated as International Women’s Day. But Delhi, which is virtually the rape-capital of India, celebrated it by learning about an incident where a college going female student was shot dead in the broad day light. (goes without saying that the killer was a male.) The killer may be mentally disturbed; he may have some personal vindication against the girl, the case even may be that of revenge, but we can’t ignore the bold circumstances in which the crime was committed. It speaks much of the law and order situation in the national capital. 

Why my blame goes to Sheila Dixit has historical reasons behind it. At a time when rapes were being committed in Delhi in moving cars and by all sort of people, Sheila Dixit had made an important comment, virtually blaming the girls who dare to go out on the road late in the night. Many of us thought she was blaming the rape victims rather than the criminals. What we never imagined at that time was that Sheila Ji is totally incorrigible – even today she blames the public for her government’s failures:  

Society should help in fighting crime: Delhi CM 

Mar 10, 2011 at 03:21pm IST  

New Delhi: Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit has shifted some of the blame on the public saying civil society should speak up when they see crimes being committed in the city. Sheila made the statement even as hundreds of students from various Delhi University colleges are up in arms against the killing of 20-year-old Radhika Tanwar and increasing crime against women in the capital.”Civil society should also take responsibility and people should be more responsible when they see acts of crime in front of them.” Sheila said on Thursday. 

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/society-should-help-in-fighting-crime-delhi-cm/145463-3.html 

It is true that aam aadmi is often a mere spectator when a crime is committed in front of his/her eyes, but there is a reason why one behaves like a coward. It is because people don’t trust the police and our government to protect them from criminals’ revenge, if they come out in the open to stop or identify the criminals. Our government and our system have failed to create that sort of confidence in the minds of our citizens. If Sheila Dixit doesn’t understand this, it is her problem.  

I look forward to the media to take up this case and create some pressure on governments like Delhi’s and powerful but irresponsible Chief Ministers like Sheila Dixit, to come out of their cozy offices and do something for which they have been elected by the people.

It is true that our India is very diverse. It has diverse people, diverse cultures, and diverse places. But at times we tend to take such diversity too far and too seriously. I realised it very recently. 

It was raining in Delhi. There had been a snowfall in Kashmir a few days back. Two days afterwards, weather changed in our hometown in the East, there was a cold wave. Back West in Pune, I saw clouds in the sky and also felt cold wind blowing through. When I told mother about change in weather at my place, she said, “How big India is, but see how each part is getting affected by the same change.” 

So true… I think we should not get so lost in appreciating diversity that we forget to notice the unity and oneness of India!  

- Rahul

Here is one very disappointing piece of news about our nation’s current competitiveness. More than the rank, the “trend” is what is really worrying.  

World’s most prosperous nations: India slips 10 places to be at 88 

India has slipped 10 places to the 88th spot in the World Prosperity Index due to poor healthcare and education systems coupled with a weak entrepreneurial infrastructure. The prosperity index is based on 89 variables and claims to comprehensively rank the level of prosperity in 110 nations of the world. 

http://business.rediff.com/slide-show/2010/nov/03/slide-show-1-worlds-most-prosperous-nations.htm (November 3, 2010)  

I think government should really wake up to the realities. Note the areas where India has gone down the trend: it’s about healthcare and education systems - the prime targets of our so called “govt for aam adami”. We need some genuine soul search.

Recently, the ‘famous’ Indian activist Arundhati Roy made a statement that “Kashmir has never been integral part of India”.  

http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/Kashmir-has-never-been-integral-part-of-India-Arundhati/701793/  

Before becoming an activist, Arundhati was an author. In fact “The God of Small Things” is the only novel written by her. Since winning the Booker Prize, she has been writing on political issues. I read Arundhati Roy’s “God of small things” after it won the Booker Prize 1997. Story was complex and treaded on many dimensions. But one part made me bewildered: the story showed a sexual relationship between a brother and a sister. At that time I wondered what kind of a perverted writer she was. Later on I read that her book “God of small things” is semi-autobiographical and a major part captures her childhood experiences in Kerala. (She was born in Meghalaya to a Keralite Syrian Christian mother and a Bengali father. She spent her childhood in Aymanam in Kerala. She married twice and she and her present husband Pradip Krishnen had no children.) 

In any case I believe Arundhati wanted to create a public debate on Kashmir issue. Here is what I have to say:  

1) First of all, let us remember why “freedom” or “azaadi” is so precious for Indians. If Indians won’t understand “azadi”, after being under foreign slavery for 1000 years, I don’t know who will. Innumerable sacrifices have made us achieve our precious freedom from the British and we have been tolerant enough to allow creation of Pakistan/Bangladesh on religious ground, so as to achieve long term peace. We have also tolerated confrontation with Pakistan and China even if they keep a portion of our land, in order to avoid war. In conditions like these, giving autonomy or freedom to one of our states, is out of question because it threatens the “India model”.  

2) Arundhati has been supporting Naxals and now she is supporting Kashmiri separatists. She might have an opinion and reasons to support Maoists or Separatists, but she is definitely making India weak by supporting them in public and giving them limelight and legitimacy. In democracy, we are allowed to have radical opinions, but to work full-time in spreading anti-India violence, she should be told to restrain. I would support her right of expression greatly, if she supported a non-violent movement. But she supports Maoists who kill Indian police and military forces as a way of life; and separatists in Kashmir who killed thousands of innocent Indians - and I would be happy for a case against her to be filed. My personal opinion is that she is a publicity hound and has serious psychological deviations which make her invite public attention, and her ego even feeds on their outrage. She should be treated well. 

3) Arundhati seems to have become an overnight expert to understand problems in Kashmir and is passing verdicts. I don’t know who would support her but only “elitists”? Look, Arundhati is famously wise and globally popular – if I too support her, may be some of hers would brush off on me too? I am glad rest of India is not with her.  

4) For Kashmir, much of the protest is “sponsored” and stones thrown are “funded” by money coming from Pakistan – and hence the problem has many dimensions.  

‘Kashmir stone-pelters funded by Pakistan’

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/kashmir-stonepelters-funded-by-pakistan/133688-3.html 

5) Someone said why Kashmir should not get “azadi” when Pakistan got it in 1947? If we allowed Pakistan to get created, it doesn’t mean we would allow every Muslim dominated locality to become a separate nation. Today, India is not slave to Britain or anyone else, and hence can protect its soil from anti-nationals.  

6) For those who blame Indian govt and think Kashmiri Muslims have got caught in the cross-fire, I suggest they search and read History properly. Read what is and how “Martyr’s Day” celebrated in Kashmir even now, remembering the dead Muslims who revolted against Hindu Dogra king, in 1931. Alas, the same kind of protest is going in Kashmir at present in 2010, as what was going on in 1931. Do read about it. 

7) In my views, solution to Kashmir’s problem can be done in this way: India should first force a peace by sending all separatists to jail, take back special status of the state by removing Article 370 from our constitution and allow migration in and out of the state, and thereby inculcate the spirit of “national integration”. The special status for the state, no matter what was the historical reason behind it, has reached us to the point where our great nation which finds no parallel in history for being peace loving, is being accused like a murderous and curbing autocracy. 

The bottom line is: I feel sad that the Kashmiri separatist Muslims have hijacked and abused the word and spirits of “Azadi” so much. India should strive for a proper solution to Kashmir in the long term and should strongly protect our sovereignty in the short term. And our governments should stop supporting antinational elements.  

PS: I had also asked a question in Rediff QnA, which saw some very good opinion and discussion posted on the matter. You can check it out here:  

http://qna.rediff.com/questions-and-answers/today-arundhati-roy-said-kashmir-has-never-been/18306184/answers 

I asked: What do you think Arundhati is, and why: 

(a) Patriotic Indian

(b) Unpatriotic Indian

(c) Childish / Mentally disturbed

(d) Publicity Hound.  

My take is (d)

Here is a news which no Indian would be happy about:  

“India has slipped by two places to 51^st in the World Economic Forum’s global competitiveness rankings, while rival China has managed to improve its standing to 27^th (from 29^th a year ago).” 

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/India-drops-to-51st-position-in-global-competitiveness-ranking/articleshow/6525751.cms  

The first question which comes to our mind is: “Why?” Details of the news says that India has fared badly due to poorer performance in the social sectors like education, healthcare and infrastructure. And a startling statistics tells that life expectancy in India is 10 years shorter than in China and Brazil!

I agree with the report that India fares poor in areas like education, health and infrastructure. But these are merely symptoms or results rather than the root cause. I think the root cause in these cases is the rampant corruption in public services. Do our teachers attend our government schools regularly? Are the funds meant for public health schemes spent properly? How many infrastructure projects complete well in time and without corruption charges made against the contractors or the administrators? (remember murder of engineer Satyendra Dubey because he was honest?) 

I hope government of India identifies and targets the root cause of our poor performances in global competitiveness. It is not impossible to weed out corruption. There are many ways to achieve it and the efforts should be multitired. Just as a pointer – increasing use of technology, IT and computers in public departments results in avoidance of corruption chances too. The simple reason is that systems make manipulation difficult or impossible. Historical data on the systems can be retrived easily and used to support systems like RTI. E-Governance is a transparent, fair and systematic system. Then there are so many other ways to simply deny any malpractice from happening.  

I think the next five to ten years are very important for our nation’s progress. Not only the race among BRIC nations would be decided by then, the generation which witnessed economic reforms would be ready to nurture its subsiquent generation. And we can put a lot of hope on the youth…  

- Rahul

Recent news space has been buzzing with the wedding announcement of Indian tennis queen Sania Mirza and one Pakistani cricketer Shoaib Malik. It’s true that marriage between two persons is a personal affair, but if the person has enjoyed boundless love, affection, accolades and fan-following from the Indian masses for years, it is natural for the masses to have an opinion about his or her decision. Sania Mirza has not been like any other tennis player – she was awarded Padma Shree by the President of India – Padma Shree being one of the highest civilian awards in our country. Before that, she was awarded Arjuna Award by the government of India. She has worn our Tricolor for so many years and all of we Indians have showered our support and love every time she went out to play for us. The whole nation supported her against the Islamic Mullahs who objected her skirts and short tennis clothes. The national media supported her when she was charged with showing disrespect to our national flag. And in the end, if she decides to marry a man who competes against our national cricket team and bears the stars of a nation which has fought at least four wars with us and is responsible for terror attacks on our soil; and if she decides to get settled in a foreign country, we are in our rights to doubt her integrity and patriotism. Her declarations of keeping Indian passport and not settling down in Pakistan are only delusions to prevent controversies – who can guarantee if a married couple changes mind afterwards? 

Shoib Malik’s first marriage with an Indian woman Ayesha Siddiqui and his alleged dumping is a totally new dimension to Sania-Shoib wedding. But I guess government of India won’t try to protect the rights of one Indian Ayesha due to political reasons.  

We can’t know truth that lies in the hearts of Sania or Shoib. But one thing is sure: Sania Mirza is now no role model for Indian women.  

- Rahul

(India V3)

Can the world correct where Gandhi failed us?

Some days back, a UN report claimed that Iran had the expertise to make nuclear bombs. That made me thinking. It reminded me of Pakistan’s greatest (or world's worst) scientist - AQ Khan. Some time back he had accused the Pakistani Govt of ‘using’ him for its own political purpose. He said that the nuclear technology which he had sold to other nations including Iran had full consent of the Pakistani government. He had sold nuclear technology which was to be used for producing nuclear weapons to many nations including Iran, North Korea, Libya and China - all of these are violent establishments marred by human rights violations. Now the future of this whole earth is at the mercy of those whom Pakistan helped, as the greatest threat is that Afghanistani Taliban can get access to Pakistani nuclear technology! And just imagine what could happen if Taliban or other Islamic terrorists get access to these nuclear weapons and technology. From India to the US, or the UK, they can be brought to their feet. We should never underestimate terrorist organisations - they had shown what they can do by bringing WTC down. It brings me to one conclusion - if there is one nucleon threatening the whole world’s peace, it is Pakistan.

We humans are prone to err, but only if we have heart to accept our mistakes, prudence to learn from the mistakes, and the wisdom to do something to turn the situation around; we can be called wise. Let us accept that creation of Pakistan was the worst thing that happened in modern India's history. Let us accept that all Indian leaders with hallows around their heads, including Gandhi and Nehru were proven wrong by the fanatic Pakistani leadership ' and many would have guessed their failure even in 1947. Let us accept that the biggest threat to this world, Pakistan, needs to be tackled. That brings me to a conclusion: Enemy has never looked so particular.

Related news:

1. Iran Can Make Nuclear Bomb: Atomic Watchdog, 17 Sep 09, Huffington Post report
2. AQ Khan nails Pakistan’s nuke lies, 21 Sep 09, Times of India report
3. A Q Khan admits to Pak’s nuke nexus with Iran, Libya, 21 Sep 09, Indian Express report
4. Pak exchanged N-tech for N Korean long range missiles: US, 2 Jun 09, TOI report
5. Iran n-plant has links with A Q Khan: US, 17 Feb 07, TOI report

(Rahul)