Posts Tagged ‘Bali’

Grouchy dragon, defiant tiger

November 30th, 2011


http://im.rediff.com/uim/news/sai.jpgA comment on a social networking site summed it up neatly: ‘Twenty years ago India was in economic doldrums, and the country’s finance minister made a beeline to Western capitals for prescriptions of recovery. Today, the same man, as prime minister is visiting Western capitals to prescribe measures for them to come out of their economic crisis.’


 


Even making allowances for hyperbole, the grain of truth in that statement cannot be denied even by India’s obdurate critics. Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh’s visits to Bali – to attend the 9th India-Asean summit and the 6th East Asia Summit – and Singapore last week were not mere extensions of India’s Look East policy, but a sign, seen often, of India’s assertiveness on the global stage.


 


It was a lack of this trait, combined with its innate lack of self-belief, that led to India’s consignment to the sidelines in the present world order. Today, when the signs are all clear that the world order has worked to the benefit of a few nations and denied the emerging powerhouses their due, and its jettisoning a question of ‘when’ and not ‘if’, India clearly doesn’t want to be left behind in the history books yet again.


 


Even if it means standing up to the dragon on our east – as was evident during Dr Singh’s recent foray into its backyard – never mind that China gave us a bloody nose in 1962 and still sits on thousands of square kilometres of our territory and continues to make minatory noises over Arunachal Pradesh which it claims is disputed.


 


The standing up was evident not merely from an attendance at the Asean and EAS summits, but that these engagements served to bring to the discussion table a topic that China would rather engage bilaterally with the Asean nations – maritime security. Aka, right of navigation in the South China Sea, which China virtually claims is its private lake.


 


With a bulk of the trade from the region using this route to reach the western shores of America and beyond, the issue is a livewire one. Especially for India, whose growing economic ties in the region mean accessing the sea route and whose ship, INS Airavat, was subject to a barrage of questions a few months while on the sea.


 


China never took us seriously,” says an Indian official who was part of the prime minister’s delegation to Bali and Singapore. “We were boxed in in South Asia, and never considered fit enough to break out of that mold.”


 


First with the AB Vajpayee government – which initially invited global opprobrium by going nuclear and soon engaged with the world thanks to its growing economic clout – and the succeeding Manmohan Singh one which forged ahead with India’s newfound confidence, the official says there was little China could, and can, do.


 


So was it mere economics at play here? “Of what use is your economic strength if you are unable to defend it?” counters the official. “China cannot walk in like they did in 1962 because of our (nuclear) capability. We are not a pushover anymore.”


 


But with the Indian economy grinding to a slow halt, in reflection of global cues, was India better off in its splendid isolation – like Myanmar? Is the economic clout about to disappear like a mirage?


 


“Yes, our economy is in slowdown mode,” says another official. “But let’s not forget, we will still grow at 7 percent – which, if you look around us, is not bad at all. And isolation is no more an option, it is an increasingly dependent world, as even Myanmar has realised.”


 


Which, if you look at the country with which India shares its longest border and which is our first touchpoint with Asean, is true. Scheduled as the next chair of Asean – its first international outing under the military junta – Myanmar has also begun its slow march to popular rule, which has left the Indian foreign office in a ‘We said so’ mode.


 


So despite his advancing age, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh keeps a punishing schedule, clocking admirable airmiles in the process, and engaging with the world as never before, even inviting the criticism ‘prime minister for foreign affairs’.


 


And despite perceptions to the contrary, the Indian foreign office is at pains to explain that what is at the core of Indian policy is to do what is best for India.


 


“If we are targetting China why would it be our single largest trading partner in goods (with services included, it is America)?” asks an official who has engaged with China in the past.


 


What has changed, he says, is that India-China relations, which were uni-dimensional once upon a time, today cover a gamut of issues. “Previously our only engagement with China was over the border,” the official says. “Today, border is just one issue between us.”


 


Perhaps reflective of the many dimensions of the bilateral relationship, at their bilateral in Bali “which lasted longer than the scheduled 40 minutes,” Dr Singh and his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao – the two have met at least four times in the last one year – spoke of there being room for both the Asian giants and the importance of working together.


 


And, while Asean discussed maritime security much to China’s chagrin, the critical statements coming out of Beijing subsequently warning against ‘outside interference in the region’ were symptomatic of rocky nature of the relationship between India and China.


 


“We are not a threat to China. Yet,” says an official on the condition of anonymity. “What China is trying to do is to see that we never emerge as one.”


 


So is India being deliberately provocative by engaging with nations in its sphere of influence? “No, we are not,” says the official. “But then we too don’t like them being in Pakistan, etc, will they because of that?”


 


In a region where the Indian – Indic, if you will – historic influence is all too clear in the customs and languages, perhaps it is only right that Indian re-establish its presence, a desire that is in sync with the sole superpower America’s unstated aim of containing the Chinese dragon.


 


As India played out its role in Bali, a role that had been pre-scripted, the concatenation of events hold a portent. President Barack Obama, who has spoken of his warm ties with Dr Singh and who nevertheless did not find the time to meet with the latter – their last engagement was in India a year ago – was the first bilateral meeting that the Indian prime minister held in Bali.


 


In his opening remarks Dr Singh ‘reported’ to the US president that ‘all the irritants in their ties have been removed’. Just a couple of days before, India had amended its nuclear liability laws to be more in tune with the American nuclear industry’s demands. India’s domestic nuclear liability laws which placed unlimited liability on the suppliers was the single issue that held up not only the operationalisation of the India-US nuclear deal but also had a cascading effect on the entire gamut of ties.


 


‘We have tabled the new guidelines, it is for the American industry to let us know they meet their expectations,” said sources in the government.


 


In another sign, Australia – whose Prime Minister Julian Gillard held a pull-aside meeting Dr Singh in Bali – relented from its earlier refusal to supply uranium to India, a move that will still have to be approved by the ruling Conservative Party caucus in December.


 


And Japan, which had always remained sceptical of a nuclear India and which put its strategic dialog with India on the backburner after the Fukushima disaster in March, agreed to resume the civil nuclear agreement talks with India.


 


All of which, when read together rather than as isolated developments, would indicate an American nod behind it all.


 


“We are not in any camp, the days of the world being divided into camps are over,” says an Indian official. “For those with the outdated cold war outlook on the world all this would seem strange, but it is not ‘if you are not with us, you are against us’ anymore.”


 

Thus it is, that India seems comfortable supping with China even while disagreeing on the menu, and picking and choosing the ingredients from the American kitchen, in its effort to host a grand banquet. In an emerging world that has trade as the fulcrum and not ideological shibboleths, India, with an economist prime minister, seems a cinch for the long haul.

Dr Singh flies back into Delhi

November 22nd, 2011


http://im.rediff.com/uim/news/sai.jpgPrime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh returned to New Delhi on Sunday night after concluding his three-day, two-nation tour to Bali and Singapore where he attended important Asian groupings and held important bilateral meetings.


 


By all accounts it was a successful overseas visit, not merely for the fact that he managed to articulate India’s standpoint across fora or offered prescriptions for global ills, but more for the fact that Dr Singh managed to walk the diplomatic tightrope between diverse suitors even while keeping a firm eye on where his interests lay.


 


If the 9th India-Asean and the 6th East Asia summits signalled a ganging up against China — at least in popular perception, if not in reality — where maritime security, an euphemism for navigation through South China Sea, was up for discussion despite Beijing’s chagrin, Dr Singh also held his own at the bilateral meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao, which according to official extended well below the scheduled time. “They get along very well,” said a source who was in on the discussions.


 


And, if he managed to keep China in good humour, Dr Singh also tried to put the spluttering India-United States tie back on the rails with his long-in-coming bilateral with US President Barack Obama. As the prime minister ‘reported’ to Obama, the irritants in the ties between them were being sorted out: the nuclear liability bill was being tweaked, and India voted against Iran on the IAEA report over its nuclearisation plans.


 


If diplomacy was the art of walking the tightrope with a blindfold, then this visit showed that Dr Singh has evolved into a lithe trapeze artist, swinging from end to end without once losing his grip.


 


Highly-placed government officials in New Delhi, concurred. “We calculate what is in our best interests and act accordingly,” they said. “We follow who/what is in our interests, and we work with whoever for it. After all, we are in a situation where there are many powers, and the world has moved on from a position of ‘if you are not with us you are against us’ kind of mindset.”


 


“If you are used to a bipolar world you may find this unsettling, but we are the only ones practising this, everyone does it. It is taking into account global realities.”


 


Pointing out that in his opening remarks at their bilateral on Friday in Bali, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said that whenever the two nations worked together they were able to articulate global concerns better, the sources said not only did the meeting between them last longer than scheduled, they also had a frank discussion on all issues of concern to them.


 


“Prime ministers don’t negotiate, they only discuss issues and leave the negotiations to the others,” the sources said.


 


In fact, more than the stapled Chinese visas for the people of Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh, which the sources said have stopped for a few months, what is important is their position on Kashmir where, since the mid-1990s they have kept out of it as a bilateral issue.


 


“In fact, if you want to see how much the world has moved on look no further than Kashmir,” another official said. “There was a time when it was the only issue being discussed on global fora vis-a-vis India. Today is anyone even mentioning it? India’s position has been accepted.”


 


If India’s liability clause for foreign suppliers of nuclear plants and its stand on Iran’s nuclear issue were irritants with the US, both the issues were sought to be nixed last week. India’s tabled new regulations on the liability of suppliers for discussion, and voted against Iran on the IAEA report on its nuclear plans.


 


While on the nuclear law the sources said they were yet to hear from the suppliers lobby on the amended clauses, even while not ruling out politicisation of the issue, on Iran, it was clear that merely because it had voted against Iran India won’t plumb wholesale for a hard line as the West would like.


 


Our position has always been there there should not be any further nuclearisation of the region, but that doesn’t mean we don’t support Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy. “We are very clear that yelling at them won’t work. At the same time, they must clarify to the international community what they are doing, legitimate concerns should be addressed through the IAEA, in that sense nothing has changed for us.”


 


But even this little movement, it seems, has thawed the US’s position. For in a quick pull-aside on the sidelines of the East Asia summit, Australian Prime Minister Julian Gillard apprised Dr Singh of the steps being taken by her government to secure her Labour party’s okay for selling uranium to India, a turnaround from Canberra’s earlier stated position.


 


This change, sources said, could only have come about on the US’s insistence.


 


“All this shows that the world is changing, it is not a static entity anymore, we are successfully dealing with the US, Russia and China and others to secure what is the best for India,” the sources said.


 

Dr Singh returned ahead of Parliament’s winter session beginning Tuesday, where there is no dearth of issues bedevilling his government. Will he and his managers show the same ingenuity in dealing with domestic issues as they have done overseas? Let’s wait and watch.

PM seeks greater connect with nations in China’s backyard

November 22nd, 2011


http://im.rediff.com/uim/news/sai.jpgUnmindful of China’s displeasure over India’s involvement with nations in its backyard, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Saturday announced a proposal to link South East Asian nations through a highway, presumably over the sea.


 


Greater physical connectivity between India and Asean remains our strategic objective, Dr Singh told the 9th India-Asean summit in Bali. “There are several proposals under consideration with regard to land and sea connectivity. These include the India-Myanmar-Thailand highway, its extension to Laos and Cambodia, and the development of a new highway also linking Vietnam.”


 


In this regard, he said, “We also have a study on a Mekong-India Economic Corridor conducted by the Economic Research Institute for Asean and East Asia which proposes the linking of corridors in the peninsular, and possibly the north east, regions of India with the East Asian region.”


 


The connectivity will not just take the physical highway, but also e-route. India has  already offered to assist in the master plan on Asean information and connectivity technology  and in particular on the establishment of an e-network in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam for tele-medicine and tele-education.


 


Highlighting other areas of cooperation Asean, Dr Singh said India’s department of space has revised its proposal for a five-year project for establishing a tracking and reception station and data processing facility for  Asean nations and btraining of their personnel.


 


Welcoming  India’s growing cooperation with Asean nations on security issues, and its  association with Asean-led forums,  Dr Singh said these moves have focused on maritime security, counter-terrorism, training, exercises and disaster management.


 


Pointing out that India’s trade with Asean has increased by 30 per cent in 2010-11 and has crossed the 50 billion US dollar mark., Dr Singh said such a  rate of growth should make it possible achieve the trade target of 70 billion US dollar by 2012 and sought the early conclusion of a commercially meaningful services and investment agreement by March 2012.

Ties with US, China: All is well, says government

November 22nd, 2011


http://im.rediff.com/uim/news/sai.jpgAhead of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s bilateral meeting with United States President Barack Obama on November 18 in Bali on the sidelines of the India-Asean summit (lasting one hour, according to the official itinerary handed over to the accompanying Indian media), highly placed sources in the government sought to rebut the impression that the two democracies had lost their way in the labyrinth of domestic preoccupations.


 


Addressing the media in New Delhi, the sources emphasised that the India-US relations were in “good shape”. “We are doing well, the situation is evolving, if you look at it we are doing many more things together than before, in West Asia, North Africa etc. We are consulted on a range of issues,” the sources said.


 


On the nuclear deal between the two nations, which has been vexed by the question of supplier liability, it was for the US to say if the new proposals limiting the period of liability to five years was ok or not. “There is a reality you have to accept, and that is that you cannot say Indian laws won’t apply,” the sources said.


 


The talks between the two sides will cover bilateral relations as well as the situation in the region, apart from economics. While maritime security will be discussed, it won’t be the centrepiece of the talks.


 


Perhaps so, but that maritime security is an issue of concern in the region, especially in the face of Chinese intent to call the shots in the region it considers its backyard, is evident from the fact that it will also be discussed at the East Asia Summit on Saturday, with several proposals being lined up before the EAS.


 


From India’s viewpoint, the issue is, who owns South China Sea, the sources said, and that all nations including China have accepted the law of the sea. While China prefers to deal with the issue on a bilateral basis with countries in the region, the latter prefer to deal with it as a group. India’s own standpoint, while welcoming discussions on the subject, is that right of passage is important.


 


Ahead of the meeting between Dr Singh and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on Friday, the sources also categorised the relationship between the two Asian giants as “complex, with elements of cooperation and competition” between them. You can take slices of it and analyse them separately and conclude that intrusions are high etc, but if you look at the big picture over the last 10 years, it is clear that both sides have improved capabilities, the sources said.


 


Terming the two nations as “mirror images” of each other, the sources said what mattered was the balance between the two sides. “Over 10 years the Chinese presence has increased, but so has ours.”


 


The other aspect of the complex relationship between the two sides was the phenomenal trade between them. With China emerging as India’s single largest trading partner in goods (the US is the largest if services were also included), and given the growth in the two nations, “a whole clutch of economic issues have arisen”.


 


The third aspect to the India-China relationship was that while in the past it was a one-issue one, the border, today the two sides have enormous political interaction, and are ready to discuss maritime security, in fact everything. That is because, the sources said, we are both looking for the same thing, to be allowed to grow uninterruptedly.


 


Border intrusions from the Chinese side was less, the sources said, but at the same time the capability was higher. Refusing to put too big a spin on Chinese troops crossing over to plant the flag on the Indian side etc (”it’s ok, we do the same thing too”), the sources said the ties between the two sides was hardest to manage and predict because the pace of change was so fast.


 


Naturally, then, the Special Representative level talks between the two sides on the border issues has not been “loaded with a timeframe”, with the laborious process of fixing a framework being underway.


 


“The real issue is that China needs your market and you need their market,” the sources said, and the trick is to do it in such a manner that your industries are not affected.


 

On the arming of Maoists issue, the sources said while it was true that Chinese-made arms were found on them, China was not arming them. “What is disturbing is that weapons are all over the place, and the biggest manufacturer of cheap weapons is China.”

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