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Posts Tagged ‘China’

Grouchy dragon, defiant tiger

November 30th, 2011


http://im.rediff.com/uim/news/sai.jpgA comment on a social networking site summed it up neatly: ‘Twenty years ago India was in economic doldrums, and the country’s finance minister made a beeline to Western capitals for prescriptions of recovery. Today, the same man, as prime minister is visiting Western capitals to prescribe measures for them to come out of their economic crisis.’


 


Even making allowances for hyperbole, the grain of truth in that statement cannot be denied even by India’s obdurate critics. Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh’s visits to Bali – to attend the 9th India-Asean summit and the 6th East Asia Summit – and Singapore last week were not mere extensions of India’s Look East policy, but a sign, seen often, of India’s assertiveness on the global stage.


 


It was a lack of this trait, combined with its innate lack of self-belief, that led to India’s consignment to the sidelines in the present world order. Today, when the signs are all clear that the world order has worked to the benefit of a few nations and denied the emerging powerhouses their due, and its jettisoning a question of ‘when’ and not ‘if’, India clearly doesn’t want to be left behind in the history books yet again.


 


Even if it means standing up to the dragon on our east – as was evident during Dr Singh’s recent foray into its backyard – never mind that China gave us a bloody nose in 1962 and still sits on thousands of square kilometres of our territory and continues to make minatory noises over Arunachal Pradesh which it claims is disputed.


 


The standing up was evident not merely from an attendance at the Asean and EAS summits, but that these engagements served to bring to the discussion table a topic that China would rather engage bilaterally with the Asean nations – maritime security. Aka, right of navigation in the South China Sea, which China virtually claims is its private lake.


 


With a bulk of the trade from the region using this route to reach the western shores of America and beyond, the issue is a livewire one. Especially for India, whose growing economic ties in the region mean accessing the sea route and whose ship, INS Airavat, was subject to a barrage of questions a few months while on the sea.


 


“China never took us seriously,” says an Indian official who was part of the prime minister’s delegation to Bali and Singapore. “We were boxed in in South Asia, and never considered fit enough to break out of that mold.”


 


First with the AB Vajpayee government – which initially invited global opprobrium by going nuclear and soon engaged with the world thanks to its growing economic clout – and the succeeding Manmohan Singh one which forged ahead with India’s newfound confidence, the official says there was little China could, and can, do.


 


So was it mere economics at play here? “Of what use is your economic strength if you are unable to defend it?” counters the official. “China cannot walk in like they did in 1962 because of our (nuclear) capability. We are not a pushover anymore.”


 


But with the Indian economy grinding to a slow halt, in reflection of global cues, was India better off in its splendid isolation – like Myanmar? Is the economic clout about to disappear like a mirage?


 


“Yes, our economy is in slowdown mode,” says another official. “But let’s not forget, we will still grow at 7 percent – which, if you look around us, is not bad at all. And isolation is no more an option, it is an increasingly dependent world, as even Myanmar has realised.”


 


Which, if you look at the country with which India shares its longest border and which is our first touchpoint with Asean, is true. Scheduled as the next chair of Asean – its first international outing under the military junta – Myanmar has also begun its slow march to popular rule, which has left the Indian foreign office in a ‘We said so’ mode.


 


So despite his advancing age, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh keeps a punishing schedule, clocking admirable airmiles in the process, and engaging with the world as never before, even inviting the criticism ‘prime minister for foreign affairs’.


 


And despite perceptions to the contrary, the Indian foreign office is at pains to explain that what is at the core of Indian policy is to do what is best for India.


 


“If we are targetting China why would it be our single largest trading partner in goods (with services included, it is America)?” asks an official who has engaged with China in the past.


 


What has changed, he says, is that India-China relations, which were uni-dimensional once upon a time, today cover a gamut of issues. “Previously our only engagement with China was over the border,” the official says. “Today, border is just one issue between us.”


 


Perhaps reflective of the many dimensions of the bilateral relationship, at their bilateral in Bali “which lasted longer than the scheduled 40 minutes,” Dr Singh and his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao – the two have met at least four times in the last one year – spoke of there being room for both the Asian giants and the importance of working together.


 


And, while Asean discussed maritime security much to China’s chagrin, the critical statements coming out of Beijing subsequently warning against ‘outside interference in the region’ were symptomatic of rocky nature of the relationship between India and China.


 


“We are not a threat to China. Yet,” says an official on the condition of anonymity. “What China is trying to do is to see that we never emerge as one.”


 


So is India being deliberately provocative by engaging with nations in its sphere of influence? “No, we are not,” says the official. “But then we too don’t like them being in Pakistan, etc, will they because of that?”


 


In a region where the Indian – Indic, if you will – historic influence is all too clear in the customs and languages, perhaps it is only right that Indian re-establish its presence, a desire that is in sync with the sole superpower America’s unstated aim of containing the Chinese dragon.


 


As India played out its role in Bali, a role that had been pre-scripted, the concatenation of events hold a portent. President Barack Obama, who has spoken of his warm ties with Dr Singh and who nevertheless did not find the time to meet with the latter – their last engagement was in India a year ago – was the first bilateral meeting that the Indian prime minister held in Bali.


 


In his opening remarks Dr Singh ‘reported’ to the US president that ‘all the irritants in their ties have been removed’. Just a couple of days before, India had amended its nuclear liability laws to be more in tune with the American nuclear industry’s demands. India’s domestic nuclear liability laws which placed unlimited liability on the suppliers was the single issue that held up not only the operationalisation of the India-US nuclear deal but also had a cascading effect on the entire gamut of ties.


 


‘We have tabled the new guidelines, it is for the American industry to let us know they meet their expectations,” said sources in the government.


 


In another sign, Australia – whose Prime Minister Julian Gillard held a pull-aside meeting Dr Singh in Bali – relented from its earlier refusal to supply uranium to India, a move that will still have to be approved by the ruling Conservative Party caucus in December.


 


And Japan, which had always remained sceptical of a nuclear India and which put its strategic dialog with India on the backburner after the Fukushima disaster in March, agreed to resume the civil nuclear agreement talks with India.


 


All of which, when read together rather than as isolated developments, would indicate an American nod behind it all.


 


“We are not in any camp, the days of the world being divided into camps are over,” says an Indian official. “For those with the outdated cold war outlook on the world all this would seem strange, but it is not ‘if you are not with us, you are against us’ anymore.”


 

Thus it is, that India seems comfortable supping with China even while disagreeing on the menu, and picking and choosing the ingredients from the American kitchen, in its effort to host a grand banquet. In an emerging world that has trade as the fulcrum and not ideological shibboleths, India, with an economist prime minister, seems a cinch for the long haul.

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India looks east, but with a firm eye on South Asia

November 22nd, 2011

http://im.rediff.com/uim/news/sai.jpgIndia can take heart that its Look East policy, after an initial period of fits and starts, has gone well, with membership to important multi-regional forums and the world respecting it for the way it has come out of its shell, but that does not mean it has taken its eyes off the immediate neighbourhood whose developments pack the punch to derail its hard-earned progress. As Prime Minister Manmohan Singh returned from Bali and Singapore, where he demonstrated that the lumbering elephant also packs nimble steps, senior government sources in New Delhi expanded on what is happening around India’s backyard.


 


Pakistan: Memo of misunderstanding


 


Joined at the hip siblings India and Pakistan continue to share an uneven relationship despite all the attempts at normalisation of ties between them. While India will go ahead with the process while keeping in mind the history, three developments to our western border are important, said top government sources in New Delhi.


 


One, the incident of the missive that was sent to Mansoor Ijaz in London, expressing the fear that a coup against Zardari was in the offing, to be handed over to Adm Mike Mullen through an intermediary. The unsigned memo had promised to replace Pakistan’s security apparatus with favourable people for the US’s help. A stung Pakistan Army deputed an ISI official to confront Ijaz, “none other than the director-general of ISI,” said the sources, “which makes the whole incident very interesting.” Ijaz not only confirmed the memo he had outed in a newspaper column but also said that Pakistan’s ambassador to the US Hussain Haqqani had approved it and said that it had Zardari’s approval. Haqqani promptly resigned as ambassador.


 


Two, the army has so far not found the “last link” to Zardari in the incident, the sources said, but that doesn’t mean things are hunky-dory.


 


Imran Khan pads up


 


Three, given the above backdrop, over the last few weeks cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan is being steadily built up, said the sources.


 


But times have changed, and a military coup is no more a viable option today and runs its own risks. “It makes so much more sense to put your own man in the job.”


 


Unlike his cricketing glory days, Imran Khan has so far not been able to translate the mass adulation for him into political support but over the last few weeks he seems to have caught a tail wind.


 


“The old Musharraf hands are backing him,” believe top sources in the Indian government, as are Shah Mahmood Qureshi and many Pakistan Muslim League members. But the risk here is for the democratic structure. “You can’t sideline the two main parties in the country, that could lead to a fresh set of troubles,” they warned.


 


For India that would mean another round of instability in a nation that is trying to come to terms with itself. “But is instability new? We will continue as before, we will talk to the government of the day, we will do business wherever we can, but the real test is the outcome,” the sources said. “There has been so much inconsistency from them, but we have been consistent in dealing with them.”


 


The fact of the matter is, they said, India has been worried about what will come out of Pakistan for a long time. “They are stuck in their own complications, and we are dealing with an impossible neighbour. They have thrown everything they have at us, and we have dealt with all of that.”


 


But the problem, the sources said, is that one is not dealing with just one Pakistan but many Pakistans. “The closest they came to being one Pakistan was under Musharraf. Look at where they are and where we are. For a long time we were being boxed into South Asia and Kashmir was an issue that was raised at world forums to beat us with. Today do you see Kashmir being raised anywhere?”


 


Net verdict: We are sorry for what they are going through, but they will have to handle this themselves.


 


Alert in Afghanistan


 


Pakistan, commentators often point out, has made a fine art of running with the hounds and hunting with the hares in the context of its involvement in the war on terror while doing little to shut down the safe havens on its territory for extremist elements. Periodically mouthing platitudes about cracking down on terror groups, it has kept up the pretence very well.


 


But what Indian government sources find worrying is that of late, even this lip service has dried up. “We detect a hardening of stance on their part vis a vis Afghanistan, which is not a good thing. It could be a result of their internal conditions, we don’t know, but we are watching the developments.”


 


Treating Afghanistan as its backyard, Pakistan has often accused India, which has an array of assistance projects in the former, of meddling in its affairs and involving itself in Pakistan to counter its influence in the region. While what the future holds is unclear, the government says they are prepared to deal with it.


 


The Tiger is dead, long live the Tiger


 


More than two years after the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam was decimated by the Sri Lankan army and its leader V Prabhakaran eliminated, the Indian government has said there have been intelligence reports of the outfit trying to regroup.


 


“We have been receiving scattered reports of the LTTE trying to regroup, and obviously Sri Lanka is worried over them.”


 


The fact is, while the LTTE may have been neutralised, its network of sympathisers and financiers remains intact, especially among the Tamil expatriate community.


 


“The remnants of all this support are still around, there are a lot of sympathisers, but so far they are too scattered to pose a live threat,” said the government sources in New Delhi. “They are too busy fighting each other now.”


 


While Sri Lanka has won the military encounter, it is yet to win the hearts of the island’s Tamil population. And unless it does this, there will always be a fear of the LTTE exploiting the dissatisfaction among the people.


 


Iran is where the nuclear dome is


 


More than with any other country, it is with Iran that India has demonstrated the most delicate footwork. It may have voted with the majority on the IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear plans, but it refuses to go along with the West in condemning Iran as evidenced by its abstention on the UN General Assembly vote “deploring” the alleged Iranian plot to kill the Saudi ambassador to the US Adel al Jubeir.


 


“Who are we to judge?” said the sources, adding, “Nothing has really changed for us. We have always said that there should not be a new nuclear power in a region fraught with tension and we maintain that position. At the same time, we also believe Iran has a right to pursue peaceful nuclear energy. We voted for the IAEA resolution, but we believe that yelling at them, like the West is doing, won’t help matters.”


 


At the same time, India believes that Iran should be more open about its plans. “They must clarify to the international community what they are doing, the legitimate concerns should be addressed through the IAEA” and not any other form.


 


“In that sense, nothing has really changed for us.”


 


Myanmar: But we said so


 


As Myanmar gets ready to take over as head of an international forum (Asean) for the first time, there are other things happening that have justified India’s engagement in the face of criticism with the military junta in an effort to goad it towards the democratic process, said Indian government sources, crowing, “But we said so!”


 


US Secretary of state Hillary Clinton is scheduled to visit the country — which shares a border longer than Pakistan with India and which is our first geographical touchpoint to Asean — next month, dissident leader Aung San Suu Kyi has said she will stand for Parliament, the monks have emerged as a big force, and Myanmar’s speaker is visiting India in December in a bid to better understand the democratic process, said the sources.


 


“They are slowly changing their sytem, but it will have to be within their comfort zone,” they said, and we can’t hurry them along. “Remember, they have 56 ethnicities in the country, and they don’t want to do anything to upset their internal systems.”


 


The message from India to Myanmar as it slowly emerges from the cocoon of international isolation is: We will help however we can.


 


Bangladesh: Teesta waters for all


 


West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee may have put a spoke in India’s growing relationship with Bangladesh when she scuttled the Teesta water-sharing treaty that was to be signed during Prime Minister Singh’s recent visit to that country, but things are moving forward.


 


Since then Banerjee has told the visiting Bangladesh finance minister Dipu Moni that she wants to conclude the treaty, and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina may visit Kolkata to deliver the Calcutta University’s convocation address.


 


“Mamata’s concerns are genuine, she doesn’t want to sacrifice North Bengal’s interests while at the same wanting to help Bangladesh, and things are being worked out on how best everyone can be satisfied with the treaty,” said the sources.


 


And once that happens, the last remaining kink in ties between the two neighbours will have been ironed out.


 


China: Dragon’s embrace


 


A government official recalled how even 10 years ago China was contemptuous of India, its lack of development, its noisy democracy. Today, he says, China has realised that India has come out of its shell and, while problems remain, it is the not the same country anymore. “A lot of it stemmed from 1962, when we just rolled over to die when they came in.”


 


What made the difference, he believes, was the nuclear capability India acquired in 1998. “You can disagree with AB Vajpayeeji’s politics or party, but you can’t deny him the credit for making the world sit up and take notice of India with this one single act,” he says.


 


Said another official: “Even 10 years ago we were boxed into the South Asia paradigm, and Chin was happy that was our pond. And then, combined with the nuclear weapons, our economy boomed, and there was nothing China could do but accept our new status grudgingly.”


 


“Of course China is not happy with our Look East policy, but then are we happy with its involvement in PoK? In Pakistan? It is all around us but we have learnt to live with it, and China too will come around to living with us,” the sources said. “But if you ask us, are we deliberately provoking China? Then the answer is No. But we also refuse to be tied down to South Asia, as one of the world’s biggest economies we are natural players on the global stage.”


 


Gone, in fact, is the traditional pussyfooting of India over thorny issues. So maritime security, an euphemism really for right of passage in South China Sea, which China considers its lake, was brought up in multilateral forum in Bali despite China’s preference for dealing with the issue on a bilateral basis.


 


“You may find it contradictory, but remember today China is our second biggest trading partner, so economics helps keep the momentum between us. The border issue is there but the talks are progressing well, though there is no timeframe to its conclusion. A few years ago our engagement with China was only over the border, today our ties are multi-dimensional, so in that sense both the countries have learnt to compartmentalise things.”


 


And as India acquires confidence in an increasingly inter-dependent world, compartmentalising relationships is something it has learnt to tweak to its advantage.

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PM seeks greater connect with nations in China’s backyard

November 22nd, 2011


http://im.rediff.com/uim/news/sai.jpgUnmindful of China’s displeasure over India’s involvement with nations in its backyard, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Saturday announced a proposal to link South East Asian nations through a highway, presumably over the sea.


 


Greater physical connectivity between India and Asean remains our strategic objective, Dr Singh told the 9th India-Asean summit in Bali. “There are several proposals under consideration with regard to land and sea connectivity. These include the India-Myanmar-Thailand highway, its extension to Laos and Cambodia, and the development of a new highway also linking Vietnam.”


 


In this regard, he said, “We also have a study on a Mekong-India Economic Corridor conducted by the Economic Research Institute for Asean and East Asia which proposes the linking of corridors in the peninsular, and possibly the north east, regions of India with the East Asian region.”


 


The connectivity will not just take the physical highway, but also e-route. India has  already offered to assist in the master plan on Asean information and connectivity technology  and in particular on the establishment of an e-network in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam for tele-medicine and tele-education.


 


Highlighting other areas of cooperation Asean, Dr Singh said India’s department of space has revised its proposal for a five-year project for establishing a tracking and reception station and data processing facility for  Asean nations and btraining of their personnel.


 


Welcoming  India’s growing cooperation with Asean nations on security issues, and its  association with Asean-led forums,  Dr Singh said these moves have focused on maritime security, counter-terrorism, training, exercises and disaster management.


 


Pointing out that India’s trade with Asean has increased by 30 per cent in 2010-11 and has crossed the 50 billion US dollar mark., Dr Singh said such a  rate of growth should make it possible achieve the trade target of 70 billion US dollar by 2012 and sought the early conclusion of a commercially meaningful services and investment agreement by March 2012.

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Ties with US, China: All is well, says government

November 22nd, 2011


http://im.rediff.com/uim/news/sai.jpgAhead of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s bilateral meeting with United States President Barack Obama on November 18 in Bali on the sidelines of the India-Asean summit (lasting one hour, according to the official itinerary handed over to the accompanying Indian media), highly placed sources in the government sought to rebut the impression that the two democracies had lost their way in the labyrinth of domestic preoccupations.


 


Addressing the media in New Delhi, the sources emphasised that the India-US relations were in “good shape”. “We are doing well, the situation is evolving, if you look at it we are doing many more things together than before, in West Asia, North Africa etc. We are consulted on a range of issues,” the sources said.


 


On the nuclear deal between the two nations, which has been vexed by the question of supplier liability, it was for the US to say if the new proposals limiting the period of liability to five years was ok or not. “There is a reality you have to accept, and that is that you cannot say Indian laws won’t apply,” the sources said.


 


The talks between the two sides will cover bilateral relations as well as the situation in the region, apart from economics. While maritime security will be discussed, it won’t be the centrepiece of the talks.


 


Perhaps so, but that maritime security is an issue of concern in the region, especially in the face of Chinese intent to call the shots in the region it considers its backyard, is evident from the fact that it will also be discussed at the East Asia Summit on Saturday, with several proposals being lined up before the EAS.


 


From India’s viewpoint, the issue is, who owns South China Sea, the sources said, and that all nations including China have accepted the law of the sea. While China prefers to deal with the issue on a bilateral basis with countries in the region, the latter prefer to deal with it as a group. India’s own standpoint, while welcoming discussions on the subject, is that right of passage is important.


 


Ahead of the meeting between Dr Singh and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on Friday, the sources also categorised the relationship between the two Asian giants as “complex, with elements of cooperation and competition” between them. You can take slices of it and analyse them separately and conclude that intrusions are high etc, but if you look at the big picture over the last 10 years, it is clear that both sides have improved capabilities, the sources said.


 


Terming the two nations as “mirror images” of each other, the sources said what mattered was the balance between the two sides. “Over 10 years the Chinese presence has increased, but so has ours.”


 


The other aspect of the complex relationship between the two sides was the phenomenal trade between them. With China emerging as India’s single largest trading partner in goods (the US is the largest if services were also included), and given the growth in the two nations, “a whole clutch of economic issues have arisen”.


 


The third aspect to the India-China relationship was that while in the past it was a one-issue one, the border, today the two sides have enormous political interaction, and are ready to discuss maritime security, in fact everything. That is because, the sources said, we are both looking for the same thing, to be allowed to grow uninterruptedly.


 


Border intrusions from the Chinese side was less, the sources said, but at the same time the capability was higher. Refusing to put too big a spin on Chinese troops crossing over to plant the flag on the Indian side etc (”it’s ok, we do the same thing too”), the sources said the ties between the two sides was hardest to manage and predict because the pace of change was so fast.


 


Naturally, then, the Special Representative level talks between the two sides on the border issues has not been “loaded with a timeframe”, with the laborious process of fixing a framework being underway.


 


“The real issue is that China needs your market and you need their market,” the sources said, and the trick is to do it in such a manner that your industries are not affected.


 

On the arming of Maoists issue, the sources said while it was true that Chinese-made arms were found on them, China was not arming them. “What is disturbing is that weapons are all over the place, and the biggest manufacturer of cheap weapons is China.”

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Dr Singh heads to Bali with an eye on the future

November 22nd, 2011

http://im.rediff.com/uim/news/sai.jpgIndia and China may not be the antagonists everyone says they are, fighting for the same piece of pie, but nor are they the best of friends.


 


Unlike, say, the United States and India which have discovered each other after a long period of standoffishness.


 


Yet, look at the facts.


 


Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and US President Barack Obama last met more than a year ago, when the latter had come calling on India in November 2010. And it was not like their paths did not cross — it did, and a few times at that, including a same-frame photo op at the recent Cannes G20 summit. Yet the two leaders, whose mentor-mentee relationship has been widely written about, did not find the time to meet.


 


Compare this with Dr Singh and his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao. The two leaders who, between the two of them preside over the destinies of nearly one-third of humanity, met last October in Hanoi, then met again in December in New Delhi, which was followed up with a meeting in China in summer this year.


 


Naturally, when Dr Singh meets both Obama and Wen in separate bilaterals in Bali on Friday, all eyes will be on the atmospherics between the leaders. Having rediscovered each other, have India and the US grown rapidly tired of each other, the oft-touted similarities palling in the face of frisson with China?


 


Maybe not, but the fact is that the three nations are engaged in some amazing footwork that will make the Mohammed Ali-Joe Frazier bouts look like an evening in the park. For the first time since the existing world order was drawn up following two bloody conflicts, unfairly according to most nations, Asia is the theatre where the world’s future is being scripted.


 


The question is, will it be in Mandarin or in English?


 


The APEC summit in Hawaii, the Indian Ocean Rim conference, G20, and the imminent ASEAN talks and other alphabetical regional conclaves are nothing but shadow-boxing between the sole superpower and the sole aspirant. India is not a contender; but victory is more assured if India is in your corner.


 


And India, given its long years of isolation when it chose to plow a lonely furrow rather than join either of the ideological blocs, knows that any deviation from the straight and narrow path may result in immediate economic bonus but also mean a vassal status in the long term. Which explains its impulse to hedge its bets.


 


Which was why, at his pre-departure briefing on Wednesday, secretary (east) in the ministry of external affairs Sanjay Singh dwelt almost entirely on the economic framework between India and the region. On any other issue, he said the media would be briefed about it if it came about.


 


For unlike the first two world wars, the third one that has been underway for a while now is not being fought with arms and ammunition. Trade is the weapon here and it’s all about economics, not geography.


 


But like the previous two conflicts, allies will make all the difference to the outcome. So nations are engaged in an elaborate fire dance that is being choreographed with the passion and skill of a Bolshoi Ballet performance.


 


If China looks like a spoiler it’s only because it is the challenger to the world order that like India it too had little role in creating but is being asked to maintain it — a task neither Asian nations are keen on discharging. But unlike India which has a history of going about it in a meek manner — who knows, we may be different if our rupee was strong too — China sees no need for an overkill of niceties.


 


To that extent at least, it is a game of containment that the US is playing, using its longstanding allies and new ones like India but also playing on the inherent fears of the dragon’s hegemony among many nations.


 


India’s position is peculiar: as the mother civilisation in the region, history may be on its side but neither geography and economics is. Yet, it finds itself at the global high table, where lots are being drawn on the future.


 


The Association of South East Asian Nations and East Asia summits later this week, which will see the attendance of India, the US, China and Russia, is one more exercise in a long train of carving out the world. Unlike the previous two exercises in 1914 and 1939, this one maybe bloodless. But it sure won’t be painless.

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