Posts Tagged ‘India’

Grouchy dragon, defiant tiger

November 30th, 2011


http://im.rediff.com/uim/news/sai.jpgA comment on a social networking site summed it up neatly: ‘Twenty years ago India was in economic doldrums, and the country’s finance minister made a beeline to Western capitals for prescriptions of recovery. Today, the same man, as prime minister is visiting Western capitals to prescribe measures for them to come out of their economic crisis.’


 


Even making allowances for hyperbole, the grain of truth in that statement cannot be denied even by India’s obdurate critics. Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh’s visits to Bali – to attend the 9th India-Asean summit and the 6th East Asia Summit – and Singapore last week were not mere extensions of India’s Look East policy, but a sign, seen often, of India’s assertiveness on the global stage.


 


It was a lack of this trait, combined with its innate lack of self-belief, that led to India’s consignment to the sidelines in the present world order. Today, when the signs are all clear that the world order has worked to the benefit of a few nations and denied the emerging powerhouses their due, and its jettisoning a question of ‘when’ and not ‘if’, India clearly doesn’t want to be left behind in the history books yet again.


 


Even if it means standing up to the dragon on our east – as was evident during Dr Singh’s recent foray into its backyard – never mind that China gave us a bloody nose in 1962 and still sits on thousands of square kilometres of our territory and continues to make minatory noises over Arunachal Pradesh which it claims is disputed.


 


The standing up was evident not merely from an attendance at the Asean and EAS summits, but that these engagements served to bring to the discussion table a topic that China would rather engage bilaterally with the Asean nations – maritime security. Aka, right of navigation in the South China Sea, which China virtually claims is its private lake.


 


With a bulk of the trade from the region using this route to reach the western shores of America and beyond, the issue is a livewire one. Especially for India, whose growing economic ties in the region mean accessing the sea route and whose ship, INS Airavat, was subject to a barrage of questions a few months while on the sea.


 


China never took us seriously,” says an Indian official who was part of the prime minister’s delegation to Bali and Singapore. “We were boxed in in South Asia, and never considered fit enough to break out of that mold.”


 


First with the AB Vajpayee government – which initially invited global opprobrium by going nuclear and soon engaged with the world thanks to its growing economic clout – and the succeeding Manmohan Singh one which forged ahead with India’s newfound confidence, the official says there was little China could, and can, do.


 


So was it mere economics at play here? “Of what use is your economic strength if you are unable to defend it?” counters the official. “China cannot walk in like they did in 1962 because of our (nuclear) capability. We are not a pushover anymore.”


 


But with the Indian economy grinding to a slow halt, in reflection of global cues, was India better off in its splendid isolation – like Myanmar? Is the economic clout about to disappear like a mirage?


 


“Yes, our economy is in slowdown mode,” says another official. “But let’s not forget, we will still grow at 7 percent – which, if you look around us, is not bad at all. And isolation is no more an option, it is an increasingly dependent world, as even Myanmar has realised.”


 


Which, if you look at the country with which India shares its longest border and which is our first touchpoint with Asean, is true. Scheduled as the next chair of Asean – its first international outing under the military junta – Myanmar has also begun its slow march to popular rule, which has left the Indian foreign office in a ‘We said so’ mode.


 


So despite his advancing age, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh keeps a punishing schedule, clocking admirable airmiles in the process, and engaging with the world as never before, even inviting the criticism ‘prime minister for foreign affairs’.


 


And despite perceptions to the contrary, the Indian foreign office is at pains to explain that what is at the core of Indian policy is to do what is best for India.


 


“If we are targetting China why would it be our single largest trading partner in goods (with services included, it is America)?” asks an official who has engaged with China in the past.


 


What has changed, he says, is that India-China relations, which were uni-dimensional once upon a time, today cover a gamut of issues. “Previously our only engagement with China was over the border,” the official says. “Today, border is just one issue between us.”


 


Perhaps reflective of the many dimensions of the bilateral relationship, at their bilateral in Bali “which lasted longer than the scheduled 40 minutes,” Dr Singh and his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao – the two have met at least four times in the last one year – spoke of there being room for both the Asian giants and the importance of working together.


 


And, while Asean discussed maritime security much to China’s chagrin, the critical statements coming out of Beijing subsequently warning against ‘outside interference in the region’ were symptomatic of rocky nature of the relationship between India and China.


 


“We are not a threat to China. Yet,” says an official on the condition of anonymity. “What China is trying to do is to see that we never emerge as one.”


 


So is India being deliberately provocative by engaging with nations in its sphere of influence? “No, we are not,” says the official. “But then we too don’t like them being in Pakistan, etc, will they because of that?”


 


In a region where the Indian – Indic, if you will – historic influence is all too clear in the customs and languages, perhaps it is only right that Indian re-establish its presence, a desire that is in sync with the sole superpower America’s unstated aim of containing the Chinese dragon.


 


As India played out its role in Bali, a role that had been pre-scripted, the concatenation of events hold a portent. President Barack Obama, who has spoken of his warm ties with Dr Singh and who nevertheless did not find the time to meet with the latter – their last engagement was in India a year ago – was the first bilateral meeting that the Indian prime minister held in Bali.


 


In his opening remarks Dr Singh ‘reported’ to the US president that ‘all the irritants in their ties have been removed’. Just a couple of days before, India had amended its nuclear liability laws to be more in tune with the American nuclear industry’s demands. India’s domestic nuclear liability laws which placed unlimited liability on the suppliers was the single issue that held up not only the operationalisation of the India-US nuclear deal but also had a cascading effect on the entire gamut of ties.


 


‘We have tabled the new guidelines, it is for the American industry to let us know they meet their expectations,” said sources in the government.


 


In another sign, Australia – whose Prime Minister Julian Gillard held a pull-aside meeting Dr Singh in Bali – relented from its earlier refusal to supply uranium to India, a move that will still have to be approved by the ruling Conservative Party caucus in December.


 


And Japan, which had always remained sceptical of a nuclear India and which put its strategic dialog with India on the backburner after the Fukushima disaster in March, agreed to resume the civil nuclear agreement talks with India.


 


All of which, when read together rather than as isolated developments, would indicate an American nod behind it all.


 


“We are not in any camp, the days of the world being divided into camps are over,” says an Indian official. “For those with the outdated cold war outlook on the world all this would seem strange, but it is not ‘if you are not with us, you are against us’ anymore.”


 

Thus it is, that India seems comfortable supping with China even while disagreeing on the menu, and picking and choosing the ingredients from the American kitchen, in its effort to host a grand banquet. In an emerging world that has trade as the fulcrum and not ideological shibboleths, India, with an economist prime minister, seems a cinch for the long haul.

India looks east, but with a firm eye on South Asia

November 22nd, 2011

http://im.rediff.com/uim/news/sai.jpgIndia can take heart that its Look East policy, after an initial period of fits and starts, has gone well, with membership to important multi-regional forums and the world respecting it for the way it has come out of its shell, but that does not mean it has taken its eyes off the immediate neighbourhood whose developments pack the punch to derail its hard-earned progress. As Prime Minister Manmohan Singh returned from Bali and Singapore, where he demonstrated that the lumbering elephant also packs nimble steps, senior government sources in New Delhi expanded on what is happening around India’s backyard.


 


Pakistan: Memo of misunderstanding


 


Joined at the hip siblings India and Pakistan continue to share an uneven relationship despite all the attempts at normalisation of ties between them. While India will go ahead with the process while keeping in mind the history, three developments to our western border are important, said top government sources in New Delhi.


 


One, the incident of the missive that was sent to Mansoor Ijaz in London, expressing the fear that a coup against Zardari was in the offing, to be handed over to Adm Mike Mullen through an intermediary. The unsigned memo had promised to replace Pakistan’s security apparatus with favourable people for the US’s help. A stung Pakistan Army deputed an ISI official to confront Ijaz, “none other than the director-general of ISI,” said the sources, “which makes the whole incident very interesting.” Ijaz not only confirmed the memo he had outed in a newspaper column but also said that Pakistan’s ambassador to the US Hussain Haqqani had approved it and said that it had Zardari’s approval. Haqqani promptly resigned as ambassador.


 


Two, the army has so far not found the “last link” to Zardari in the incident, the sources said, but that doesn’t mean things are hunky-dory.


 


Imran Khan pads up


 


Three, given the above backdrop, over the last few weeks cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan is being steadily built up, said the sources.


 


But times have changed, and a military coup is no more a viable option today and runs its own risks. “It makes so much more sense to put your own man in the job.”


 


Unlike his cricketing glory days, Imran Khan has so far not been able to translate the mass adulation for him into political support but over the last few weeks he seems to have caught a tail wind.


 


“The old Musharraf hands are backing him,” believe top sources in the Indian government, as are Shah Mahmood Qureshi and many Pakistan Muslim League members. But the risk here is for the democratic structure. “You can’t sideline the two main parties in the country, that could lead to a fresh set of troubles,” they warned.


 


For India that would mean another round of instability in a nation that is trying to come to terms with itself. “But is instability new? We will continue as before, we will talk to the government of the day, we will do business wherever we can, but the real test is the outcome,” the sources said. “There has been so much inconsistency from them, but we have been consistent in dealing with them.”


 


The fact of the matter is, they said, India has been worried about what will come out of Pakistan for a long time. “They are stuck in their own complications, and we are dealing with an impossible neighbour. They have thrown everything they have at us, and we have dealt with all of that.”


 


But the problem, the sources said, is that one is not dealing with just one Pakistan but many Pakistans. “The closest they came to being one Pakistan was under Musharraf. Look at where they are and where we are. For a long time we were being boxed into South Asia and Kashmir was an issue that was raised at world forums to beat us with. Today do you see Kashmir being raised anywhere?”


 


Net verdict: We are sorry for what they are going through, but they will have to handle this themselves.


 


Alert in Afghanistan


 


Pakistan, commentators often point out, has made a fine art of running with the hounds and hunting with the hares in the context of its involvement in the war on terror while doing little to shut down the safe havens on its territory for extremist elements. Periodically mouthing platitudes about cracking down on terror groups, it has kept up the pretence very well.


 


But what Indian government sources find worrying is that of late, even this lip service has dried up. “We detect a hardening of stance on their part vis a vis Afghanistan, which is not a good thing. It could be a result of their internal conditions, we don’t know, but we are watching the developments.”


 


Treating Afghanistan as its backyard, Pakistan has often accused India, which has an array of assistance projects in the former, of meddling in its affairs and involving itself in Pakistan to counter its influence in the region. While what the future holds is unclear, the government says they are prepared to deal with it.


 


The Tiger is dead, long live the Tiger


 


More than two years after the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam was decimated by the Sri Lankan army and its leader V Prabhakaran eliminated, the Indian government has said there have been intelligence reports of the outfit trying to regroup.


 


“We have been receiving scattered reports of the LTTE trying to regroup, and obviously Sri Lanka is worried over them.”


 


The fact is, while the LTTE may have been neutralised, its network of sympathisers and financiers remains intact, especially among the Tamil expatriate community.


 


“The remnants of all this support are still around, there are a lot of sympathisers, but so far they are too scattered to pose a live threat,” said the government sources in New Delhi. “They are too busy fighting each other now.”


 


While Sri Lanka has won the military encounter, it is yet to win the hearts of the island’s Tamil population. And unless it does this, there will always be a fear of the LTTE exploiting the dissatisfaction among the people.


 


Iran is where the nuclear dome is


 


More than with any other country, it is with Iran that India has demonstrated the most delicate footwork. It may have voted with the majority on the IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear plans, but it refuses to go along with the West in condemning Iran as evidenced by its abstention on the UN General Assembly vote “deploring” the alleged Iranian plot to kill the Saudi ambassador to the US Adel al Jubeir.


 


“Who are we to judge?” said the sources, adding, “Nothing has really changed for us. We have always said that there should not be a new nuclear power in a region fraught with tension and we maintain that position. At the same time, we also believe Iran has a right to pursue peaceful nuclear energy. We voted for the IAEA resolution, but we believe that yelling at them, like the West is doing, won’t help matters.”


 


At the same time, India believes that Iran should be more open about its plans. “They must clarify to the international community what they are doing, the legitimate concerns should be addressed through the IAEA” and not any other form.


 


“In that sense, nothing has really changed for us.”


 


Myanmar: But we said so


 


As Myanmar gets ready to take over as head of an international forum (Asean) for the first time, there are other things happening that have justified India’s engagement in the face of criticism with the military junta in an effort to goad it towards the democratic process, said Indian government sources, crowing, “But we said so!”


 


US Secretary of state Hillary Clinton is scheduled to visit the country — which shares a border longer than Pakistan with India and which is our first geographical touchpoint to Asean — next month, dissident leader Aung San Suu Kyi has said she will stand for Parliament, the monks have emerged as a big force, and Myanmar’s speaker is visiting India in December in a bid to better understand the democratic process, said the sources.


 


“They are slowly changing their sytem, but it will have to be within their comfort zone,” they said, and we can’t hurry them along. “Remember, they have 56 ethnicities in the country, and they don’t want to do anything to upset their internal systems.”


 


The message from India to Myanmar as it slowly emerges from the cocoon of international isolation is: We will help however we can.


 


Bangladesh: Teesta waters for all


 


West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee may have put a spoke in India’s growing relationship with Bangladesh when she scuttled the Teesta water-sharing treaty that was to be signed during Prime Minister Singh’s recent visit to that country, but things are moving forward.


 


Since then Banerjee has told the visiting Bangladesh finance minister Dipu Moni that she wants to conclude the treaty, and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina may visit Kolkata to deliver the Calcutta University’s convocation address.


 


“Mamata’s concerns are genuine, she doesn’t want to sacrifice North Bengal’s interests while at the same wanting to help Bangladesh, and things are being worked out on how best everyone can be satisfied with the treaty,” said the sources.


 


And once that happens, the last remaining kink in ties between the two neighbours will have been ironed out.


 


China: Dragon’s embrace


 


A government official recalled how even 10 years ago China was contemptuous of India, its lack of development, its noisy democracy. Today, he says, China has realised that India has come out of its shell and, while problems remain, it is the not the same country anymore. “A lot of it stemmed from 1962, when we just rolled over to die when they came in.”


 


What made the difference, he believes, was the nuclear capability India acquired in 1998. “You can disagree with AB Vajpayeeji’s politics or party, but you can’t deny him the credit for making the world sit up and take notice of India with this one single act,” he says.


 


Said another official: “Even 10 years ago we were boxed into the South Asia paradigm, and Chin was happy that was our pond. And then, combined with the nuclear weapons, our economy boomed, and there was nothing China could do but accept our new status grudgingly.”


 


“Of course China is not happy with our Look East policy, but then are we happy with its involvement in PoK? In Pakistan? It is all around us but we have learnt to live with it, and China too will come around to living with us,” the sources said. “But if you ask us, are we deliberately provoking China? Then the answer is No. But we also refuse to be tied down to South Asia, as one of the world’s biggest economies we are natural players on the global stage.”


 


Gone, in fact, is the traditional pussyfooting of India over thorny issues. So maritime security, an euphemism really for right of passage in South China Sea, which China considers its lake, was brought up in multilateral forum in Bali despite China’s preference for dealing with the issue on a bilateral basis.


 


“You may find it contradictory, but remember today China is our second biggest trading partner, so economics helps keep the momentum between us. The border issue is there but the talks are progressing well, though there is no timeframe to its conclusion. A few years ago our engagement with China was only over the border, today our ties are multi-dimensional, so in that sense both the countries have learnt to compartmentalise things.”


 


And as India acquires confidence in an increasingly inter-dependent world, compartmentalising relationships is something it has learnt to tweak to its advantage.

Ties with US, China: All is well, says government

November 22nd, 2011


http://im.rediff.com/uim/news/sai.jpgAhead of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s bilateral meeting with United States President Barack Obama on November 18 in Bali on the sidelines of the India-Asean summit (lasting one hour, according to the official itinerary handed over to the accompanying Indian media), highly placed sources in the government sought to rebut the impression that the two democracies had lost their way in the labyrinth of domestic preoccupations.


 


Addressing the media in New Delhi, the sources emphasised that the India-US relations were in “good shape”. “We are doing well, the situation is evolving, if you look at it we are doing many more things together than before, in West Asia, North Africa etc. We are consulted on a range of issues,” the sources said.


 


On the nuclear deal between the two nations, which has been vexed by the question of supplier liability, it was for the US to say if the new proposals limiting the period of liability to five years was ok or not. “There is a reality you have to accept, and that is that you cannot say Indian laws won’t apply,” the sources said.


 


The talks between the two sides will cover bilateral relations as well as the situation in the region, apart from economics. While maritime security will be discussed, it won’t be the centrepiece of the talks.


 


Perhaps so, but that maritime security is an issue of concern in the region, especially in the face of Chinese intent to call the shots in the region it considers its backyard, is evident from the fact that it will also be discussed at the East Asia Summit on Saturday, with several proposals being lined up before the EAS.


 


From India’s viewpoint, the issue is, who owns South China Sea, the sources said, and that all nations including China have accepted the law of the sea. While China prefers to deal with the issue on a bilateral basis with countries in the region, the latter prefer to deal with it as a group. India’s own standpoint, while welcoming discussions on the subject, is that right of passage is important.


 


Ahead of the meeting between Dr Singh and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on Friday, the sources also categorised the relationship between the two Asian giants as “complex, with elements of cooperation and competition” between them. You can take slices of it and analyse them separately and conclude that intrusions are high etc, but if you look at the big picture over the last 10 years, it is clear that both sides have improved capabilities, the sources said.


 


Terming the two nations as “mirror images” of each other, the sources said what mattered was the balance between the two sides. “Over 10 years the Chinese presence has increased, but so has ours.”


 


The other aspect of the complex relationship between the two sides was the phenomenal trade between them. With China emerging as India’s single largest trading partner in goods (the US is the largest if services were also included), and given the growth in the two nations, “a whole clutch of economic issues have arisen”.


 


The third aspect to the India-China relationship was that while in the past it was a one-issue one, the border, today the two sides have enormous political interaction, and are ready to discuss maritime security, in fact everything. That is because, the sources said, we are both looking for the same thing, to be allowed to grow uninterruptedly.


 


Border intrusions from the Chinese side was less, the sources said, but at the same time the capability was higher. Refusing to put too big a spin on Chinese troops crossing over to plant the flag on the Indian side etc (”it’s ok, we do the same thing too”), the sources said the ties between the two sides was hardest to manage and predict because the pace of change was so fast.


 


Naturally, then, the Special Representative level talks between the two sides on the border issues has not been “loaded with a timeframe”, with the laborious process of fixing a framework being underway.


 


“The real issue is that China needs your market and you need their market,” the sources said, and the trick is to do it in such a manner that your industries are not affected.


 

On the arming of Maoists issue, the sources said while it was true that Chinese-made arms were found on them, China was not arming them. “What is disturbing is that weapons are all over the place, and the biggest manufacturer of cheap weapons is China.”

Dr Singh heads to Bali with an eye on the future

November 22nd, 2011

http://im.rediff.com/uim/news/sai.jpgIndia and China may not be the antagonists everyone says they are, fighting for the same piece of pie, but nor are they the best of friends.


 


Unlike, say, the United States and India which have discovered each other after a long period of standoffishness.


 


Yet, look at the facts.


 


Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and US President Barack Obama last met more than a year ago, when the latter had come calling on India in November 2010. And it was not like their paths did not cross — it did, and a few times at that, including a same-frame photo op at the recent Cannes G20 summit. Yet the two leaders, whose mentor-mentee relationship has been widely written about, did not find the time to meet.


 


Compare this with Dr Singh and his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao. The two leaders who, between the two of them preside over the destinies of nearly one-third of humanity, met last October in Hanoi, then met again in December in New Delhi, which was followed up with a meeting in China in summer this year.


 


Naturally, when Dr Singh meets both Obama and Wen in separate bilaterals in Bali on Friday, all eyes will be on the atmospherics between the leaders. Having rediscovered each other, have India and the US grown rapidly tired of each other, the oft-touted similarities palling in the face of frisson with China?


 


Maybe not, but the fact is that the three nations are engaged in some amazing footwork that will make the Mohammed Ali-Joe Frazier bouts look like an evening in the park. For the first time since the existing world order was drawn up following two bloody conflicts, unfairly according to most nations, Asia is the theatre where the world’s future is being scripted.


 


The question is, will it be in Mandarin or in English?


 


The APEC summit in Hawaii, the Indian Ocean Rim conference, G20, and the imminent ASEAN talks and other alphabetical regional conclaves are nothing but shadow-boxing between the sole superpower and the sole aspirant. India is not a contender; but victory is more assured if India is in your corner.


 


And India, given its long years of isolation when it chose to plow a lonely furrow rather than join either of the ideological blocs, knows that any deviation from the straight and narrow path may result in immediate economic bonus but also mean a vassal status in the long term. Which explains its impulse to hedge its bets.


 


Which was why, at his pre-departure briefing on Wednesday, secretary (east) in the ministry of external affairs Sanjay Singh dwelt almost entirely on the economic framework between India and the region. On any other issue, he said the media would be briefed about it if it came about.


 


For unlike the first two world wars, the third one that has been underway for a while now is not being fought with arms and ammunition. Trade is the weapon here and it’s all about economics, not geography.


 


But like the previous two conflicts, allies will make all the difference to the outcome. So nations are engaged in an elaborate fire dance that is being choreographed with the passion and skill of a Bolshoi Ballet performance.


 


If China looks like a spoiler it’s only because it is the challenger to the world order that like India it too had little role in creating but is being asked to maintain it — a task neither Asian nations are keen on discharging. But unlike India which has a history of going about it in a meek manner — who knows, we may be different if our rupee was strong too — China sees no need for an overkill of niceties.


 


To that extent at least, it is a game of containment that the US is playing, using its longstanding allies and new ones like India but also playing on the inherent fears of the dragon’s hegemony among many nations.


 


India’s position is peculiar: as the mother civilisation in the region, history may be on its side but neither geography and economics is. Yet, it finds itself at the global high table, where lots are being drawn on the future.


 


The Association of South East Asian Nations and East Asia summits later this week, which will see the attendance of India, the US, China and Russia, is one more exercise in a long train of carving out the world. Unlike the previous two exercises in 1914 and 1939, this one maybe bloodless. But it sure won’t be painless.

My I-Day take: New India, old politics

August 14th, 2010


http://im.rediff.com/uim/news/sai.jpgFor someone returning to India after a gap, the first thing that hits you is the change. It is all around you in India, even in the smaller towns and villages where satellite television has acted as the great leveller. You must be blind to not see the change, or dense to not sense it in the air around. Yes, a million mutinies loom as always, but what has changed is in the confidence to face them.
The change is reflected not just in the glittering towers, the sweeping reach of white goods once considered luxuries, automobiles on the road, in the glitz and glamour dished out by the largest film industry in the world.
There is a new India in the mindsets as well, one that doesn’t want anything to do with the old shibboleths, or yesterday’s dogmas, or to walk the trodden path – witnessed in the diverse educational options, the radical career choices. It is an India that is unafraid of trying, never mind the outcome. Where India was defensive, even apologetic, about itself, this India of the young is brash and impatient.
As sector after sector recasts its rules to adjust to this new reality, of a bold and young India, one group seems to have not heard the bugle call of change. The tragedy is, this group is at the head of the table.
Three recent events show up the chasm between the leaders and the people they claim to represent.
With few weeks remaining for the Commonwealth Games, the largest sporting spectacle that India has ever hosted, you will expect a media carpetbombing on the world-class facilities, the grandeur of the stadiums, the awe-inspiring infrastructure etc.
Instead, what we have been seeing are mind-numbing instances of financial malfeasance, official complicity, and brazenness in the face of exposure.
With thousands of crores of rupees allotted for the Games, we are not talking of small change but of amounts big enough to change India’s physiognomy if expended on the social sector. And with politicians in charge of India’s sporting federations and Olympic association, the widespread fear is that their status, and not the nation’s, has changed. Because we’ve seen it all happen many times before.
What has been drowned out in the charges over filthy lucre is the focus on India’s sporting talent and preparedness, which is why India is hosting the games in the first place.
And the scam cuts across party lines, so even as various political parties go hammer and tongs at the government in Parliament over the shocking allegations of complicity, everyone knows that it is all part of political posturing and nothing has changed. Nor will anything change.
After all, this script has played out so many times in the past by different political parties, when India was still a hobbled giant, that it no longer elicits even the customary shrug of indifference.
Fattening on the common weal is not the only thing that is unchanged about India, there is also the reluctance to get off the back foot when dealing with hardened adversaries — as illustrated by no less than Foreign Minister SM Krishna in Islamabad last month.
The media interaction at the end of resumed foreign minister-level talks, suspended by a miffed India in the wake of the 26/11 terror attacks, brought on a sense of déjà vu. As always, Pakistan had taken the upper hand through sheer grandstanding while India, which has a stronger case against its western neighbour, responded with its traditional defensiveness, much like how its batsmen once faced up to Pakistani quicks on the cricket field.
As SM Qureshi ticked off Indian Home Secretary GK Pillai over naming ISI as the mastermind of the Mumbai terror attacks and equated him to terrorist Hafeez Saeed, did Krishna have to keep a dignified silence? It may have won him brownie points among the Old School Tie network, but the minister’s reluctance to defend the home secretary was out of sync with the nation watching it live in disbelief.
South Block, which houses the ministry of external affairs, could well take a few tips from the Men in Blue on how to overcome the Pakistani bogey. Mahendra Singh Dhoni’s team, after all, is a fitting metaphor for the new India: Refusal to be cowed down by adversity, and carrying the battle to the enemy.
But nothing represents the persistence of Old India-style politics in the face of failure as does Jammu and Kashmir. After 63 years of governance why is the constituency for India shrinking in the valley? Why are the protests getting shriller? Despite the humongous loss in human lives trying to hold on to the region and the thousands of crores pumped in there, why is India a four-letter word in the region?
As a restive populace in the border state picks up stones to beat the Indian State back, and as the people in other parts of the country begin to wonder when it will all end, the polity has nothing to offer in its cupboard. The establishment knows it must hold on to this volatile territory, for its existence as a pluralistic society depends on it, but it doesn’t know how to win Kashmir without losing India.
More than any other challenge, Kashmir represents the intellectual paucity of Old India. It can’t be entirely due to the geriatric nature of Indian politics, where at 50-plus years of age one is considered youthful — after all, when the young Omar Abdullah took over as chief minister, it was hoped he would be the harbinger of change.
In the two years he has been in office – but very little of it in power – things sure changed, but for the worse. Abdullah Jr has no idea of either the problem or the solution, and he comes off only slightly better than the other great hope in the valley, Mehbooba Mufti, and that by virtue of pledging his troth to India, while the latter keeps her options eternally open.
As the stone-pelters and the men in uniform and khadi stare each other down, what is on balance is the future of India as we know it. It is obvious that no prescriptions from the past will work, but when the doctor refuses to tailor the treatment to the patient’s constitution there is little hope of a cure.
India, unfortunately, is in the sorry state where there is an unbridgeable disconnect between the ruler and the ruled. The positive thought is that we have overcome worse, and will no doubt survive this one as well.

Sri Sri? Shiva Shiva!

June 2nd, 2010

http://im.rediff.com/uim/news/sai.jpgIt was, by all accounts, a stray bullet, but one that has ricocheted through the Art of Living bio-system. Was it meant for the popular founder, Sri Sri Ravishanker, as the guru and his band of followers believe, or otherwise, as almost everyone else believes, including Home Minister P Chidambaram?

As of now the only point of certainty is that a bullet was fired. Not by who, at who, when, how, from where, why.

Considering that the police are nowhere near knowing, leave alone apprehending, whoever fired that shot even three days after the incident, it’s safe to assume that this will join the long ranks of unsolved cases.

I have been to the ashram outside Bengaluru, interviewed the guru, and attended the evening satsang there, and agree with Sri Sri that the assailant needs to attend the satsang to get rid of his negative feelings. It’s a wonderful feeling to be part of it.

Having said that, what I don’t agree with is the chorus from various sections pointing to the dangers that our religious leaders face and for the State to provide them with security.

I am dead against such a move.

The primary reason for my resistance – much as I respect religious leaders of various persuasions whose contribution to the wellbeing of a spiritual nation like ours cannot be discounted – is that a secular nation has no business to get entangled in matters religious. That the State already is entangled, in various forms and guises, is not the issue. Should we sink deeper into the mess, since anyway we are already knee-deep in it, as some seem to suggest? I think not.

The other point is, given the multitude of religious leaders in India, who is to be provided security and who is not? Is the head of a multinational ashram more precious to us – that’s what it comes down to, really, how precious is each one? – than say the maulvi in an obscure mohalla in Aurangabad? Or, do we need to provide various gradations of security for these people too, Z+, Z, Y etc as we do to our politicians? What then happens to the religious teaching that all are equal in the eyes of God? Do we accept that even among men of God there is, there can be no equality?

Finally, who is going to pay for this security of a million gurus/teachers/whoever? Should you and I be subsidising it through the tax we pay, never mind we may be atheists and abhor all things religious and divine? A few gurus – most, actually – may be able to pay for the security themselves, but what about the vast many who cannot?

Considering the landmines on this path, I think the State should not even entertain thoughts of providing security to the religious leaders – after all, if, as religions say and the gurus teach, God created life and He alone has the right to take it, why should a secular State be concerned with something that is beyond its jurisdiction!

Sania, yeh tune kya kiya?

March 30th, 2010

Lest you think this is the cry of a love-lorn male, let me clarify. I wish Sania Mirza and her husband-to-be the best in their married life and, mashallah, may their togetherness last forever.

She’s a role model for millions of young girls in India and elsewhere, and naturally how she conducts her life and affairs has a bearing way beyond her little world. Unfortunate, but that’s the price of celebrity. Along with the tonnes of money and glamour comes the loss in privacy, the need to ‘live up’ to expectations.

It must have been hard on Sania when she was at the focus of negative attention from the religious clergy over her on-court attire, and how she handled that is entirely to her credit. Across all faiths, religious clergy is the same, a bunch of self-seekers who put themselves between the believer and god. And across faiths, they need to be put in their place.

My admiration for Sania went up when she didn’t let them get to her; we all know it is easier to succumb than to stand by what we believe in.

Naturally, I expected the young and liberal Sania to show this attitude in her personal choices as well. So I was disappointed when she went in for a proper arranged marriage.

Again, don’t get me wrong. I have nothing against marriage, only arranged marriage. I believe the era of parents choosing one’s partners etc is passé, and belongs to another era. Marriage has an inherent 50 per cent chance of success/failure, and I think the odds are better in a love marriage. Also, marriage needs to be about free choice.

I won’t say I was elated when Sania’s betrothal came unstuck; after all, it was something I expected. It takes a lot for a male to accept/handle a successful wife, and an arranged marriage where the couple has not spent time in courtship and get to know the faultlines between them does not exactly contribute to it.

Since Shoaib Malik is Sania’s choice without the families pushing them into it, there’s greater chance of it lasting this time round. But I wish Sania, a youth icon, will have been a little bolder in her choice. Yes, she has shown her admirers that it’s fine to make one’s own choice, but I feel she could have done more.

Growing up, I’ve always wondered how come my friends who went in for a love marriage mostly married a person from the same community. Like a Protestant would have a love marriage with a Protestant, ditto a TamBrahm or a Muslim. To me a love marriage had to involve persons of different backgrounds where the offspring are exposed to both sides as befitting a multi-cultural nation like India.

You can argue that Sania, by agreeing to marry a Pakistani, has done something similar. In these troubled times where a Shah Rukh Khan can invite ire for something innocuous he said about Pakistani players, you can say what Sania has done is equally important, and sends out the message that there’s really no difference between Indians and Pakistanis. Before 1947 we were one people, after all.

Perhaps. But my point is, given that barring political the only difference between an Indian and Pakistani is religion, which doesn’t apply in this particular case. Since Indians and Pakistanis are one people, it is nothing but a Muslim marrying another Muslim. I would have been much happier had Sania Mirza, who is a youth icon, showed by example that it’s fine to marry the other by marrying outside her faith. And inspired her young admirers to along similar lines. There is no point boasting of our multi-cultural, multi-religious nation if we restrict our mingling to the social level.

Which is the only reason behind the headline for this post.

This time it’s for real

February 24th, 2010

Has Pakistan really backed India’s candidature for membership of the UN Security Council following Kazakhstan’s withdrawal from the fray? I have not come across an official confirmation of this, but neither has been a denial issued so far.

If true, and the news coming on the eve of the talks between the two nations resuming after 15 months, there’s more to Thursday’s talks than what we have been told.

Among all the Indian bones stuck in Pakistan’s throat, New Delhi’s global aspirations have been the biggest, and if Islamabad is really willing to go along with our UNSC candidature it show that at least this particular bone has been swallowed, and could even be digested some day.

But there are other bones to be dealt with on both sides. I remain deeply sceptical of the peace moves between the two nations – not because peace is undesirable; on the contrary  – but because there has been no genuine overture of its friendly intentions from Pakistan’s side. It is possible a Pakistani will hold the same view about India.

But the facts are there for all to see.

A friendly nation won’t harbour a fugitive like Dawood Ibrahim and his cronies, all Indian citizens wanted in India for crimes committed in India, and pretend they are not there.

A friendly nation won’t offer territory under its control to be used for activities aimed to destroy India.

A friendly nation won’t let its history books teach hatred against India.

Conversely, are we harbouring anti-Pakistani elements in India? Are we allowing our territory to be used against Pakistan? Do our history books teach us negative fiction about Pakistan?

Pakistan is desperate to be seen talking to India only because that way lies its salvation from international opprobrium. It is not talking to us because there’s been a sudden awakening in its establishment that India, after all, is a good nation.

If Pakistan is serious about genuine friendship with India, it needs to do a lot more and also not do a lot more. Pakistan will find that if it takes one step, one genuine step towards peace, India will take five. There’s a huge constituency in India at least for lasting peace, but I continue to have my reservations about peace becoming a reality in my lifetime at least.

That’s because for one, we are not talking to the real stake-holders in Pakistan, but to the puppets. The civilian government may have the mandate to rule but it does not have the mandate for peace with India, even it is allowed to talk to us. And the real stake-holders, the army, know that peace with India will only render their very existence futile.

So what should India do in such a no-win situation? Follow Teddy Roosevelt’s dictum. Speak softly with Pakistan, but carry a big stick. The men in uniform are trained to respect the stick.

Sexy sexagenarian

January 26th, 2010

It’s all a question of perception. When a man turns 60, the traditions have it that he becomes a vanaprastha, the renunciate readying for the final stage of his life.

In a nation’s history, 60 is but a pause, at best a comma in its transition. And if the young nation were to be an ancient civilisation that has witnessed countless cycles of transition, you realise that the passage of time is but a ritual.

Young or old, 60 is a time for celebration, never mind if, like in India today, there is really little to celebrate or cheer. The tryst we made so grandly with destiny is still to be kept, and perhaps will never be. When you consider it, there’s more reason to ponder over than fete, yet we drown ourselves in a sea of self-congratulation.

I ask myself if the blitz across the media is justified. Don’t our radio jockeys and television presenters know that what we see, experience in urban India is but maya, the reality out there in the countryside very stark and very different from what we believe it to be in our malled out existence.

Sure, if you want to notch up the milestones we have done well in some spheres. When you look at the mess the region is in, it is achievement that we are still a cohesive nation, one people. India is on the move, the elephant has transformed into a tiger, go the paeans. India may be on the move, but its country cousin Bharat has been left behind in Jhumritalaiya. So we have this unusual sight of the engine steaming ahead, with the coaches stranded somewhere.

Trickle-down theory, when I read about it as an eager student in college, sounded fascinating. Applied to my billion+ people, I find it a cruel joke. Poet nonpareil Subramaniya Bharati wondered when our thirst for freedom will be quenched, and provided the context for the freedom too: if a lone man were to have no food we will destroy the world, he roared. From such idealism we have descended to a level where the crores of rupees allotted for poverty alleviation is being used to alleviate the poverty of the ruling class.

Some day it will all change, I am sure, someday we will keep the tryst with our destiny, so what if it won’t be in my time or yours. Happy Republic Day!

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